Shares in pubs group Mitchells & Butler have fallen back this morning after yesterday's bid-fuelled increases, as doubts grew about whether an offer would actually emerge.
At a scheduled meeting with analysts last night Punch Taverns - tipped as a possible bidder - reportedly said it was not responsible for one of the "expressions of interest" which M&B announced just before the close of play yesterday.
This has led to some rather cynical interpretation of recent events. The bid approaches, it may be remembered, came a day after M&B had revealed it could lose more than £400m on hedges associated with its failed property joint venture with Robert Tchenguiz.
Mark Brumby of Blue Oar Securities said this morning: "It may be hasty to write off the bid-approach announcement as a cynical ploy to divert criticism from the surviving members of the board, but we would question the timing.
" The shares had not moved ahead of the announcement and it would be surprising if the company had not had approaches. Many companies do. Certainly a large number that go through anything like what M&B has can expect some enquiries and we believe that the shares could subside from these levels in the short term. Hence some may be tempted to lock in profits. Longer term, the worth of MAB remains compelling and we would reaffirm our buy recommendation."
Over at Panmure Gordon, analyst Douglas Jack suggested an independent financial buyer was unlikely - "no synergies and the credit crunch". He believed the Tchenguiz vehicle R20, which has 23% of M&B, would not allow such a buyer to acquire M&B for less than 550p a share.
Which leaves R20 itself. Panmure believes this is most likely buyer. "The immediate benefit has been an inflation in the share price," said Jack. "If a takeover can be executed, R20 would be able to merge M&B with its other pub acquisitions (SFI, Yates, Laurel and La Tasca) and strip out the freeholds. M&B management might expect to retain their jobs if compliant."
M&B is now down 24.75p at 448.25p, while Punch has fallen 22p to 687.5p.
Elsewhere the overall market has recovered a little from earlier falls, following the expected 50 basis point cut by the US Federal Reserve last night.
On the rate cut, David Buik of Cantor Index said: "Mr Bernanke has shown willing - no question of that. But he will have to do more, definitely cut again in April, if not in March - a full 1% for choice. The outlook is bleak and we must see if tomorrow's payroll numbers bring any comfort to deteriorating markets."
After dropping around 100 points the FTSE 100 is now 32.1 points lower at 5805.2. Financials are among the main losers, with Friends Provident down 10% after an underwhelming reaction to its strategic review. Banks are lower on continuing credit crunch and rights issue worries, with Barclays 25p lower at 453.5p. Alliance & Leicester lost 22.5p to 649.5p after rating agency Standard & Poor's said it may downgrade the bank's credit rating. Standard Chartered is 46p lower at £16.06 after it restructured its Whistlejacket structured investment vehicle.
