t is easy to see who has the most to lose from the Trump-Biden presidential debates: Joe Biden. He has a lead in national and some swing state polls, but hardly overwhelming or in any sense immune from polling errors (from “shy” Trumpites) late swing as a result of, pertinently, some disastrous debate blooper.
It may degenerate into a battle of the gaffes. Biden and Trump both have a habit of “misspeaking” - saying sometimes bizarre things. They share a certain impatience, if not arrogance. At 77 and 74 respectively, neither man is as maybe mentally agile as once they were. It could be quite a strange encounter; with a combined age of 151 like two codgers arguing over the dominos in at the Stars and Stripes home for retired political street brawlers. Given the actuarial probabilities, the encounter between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris might be more coherent as well as relevant to the future of the United States.
On balance, though, Trump’s sheer shamefaced bombast probably gives him an advantage. Anything he finds awkward he will dismiss as a “hoax”, “fake news”. Trump is insulting and will play the man, even more than Biden. He is also the more keen on using his considerable bulk to attempt to intimidate his opponent, as he famously tried to with Hillary Clinton four years ago. Trump has also been president for four years and, putting things a little unkindly, some of the exposure to policy debates and expert briefings must have permeated his consciousness. For some years the Trump base have shown themselves endless indulgent towards the flaws in the president’s character. Whatever damage that Covid, a faltering economy and racial tensions were ever going to do to Donald Trump - and the setbacks have been real - has pretty much been gone. He’s the underdog again, and Trump actually feels happiest as the disruptive insurgent, the challenger, there to “drain the swamp”. Trump is probably more able to land the occasional quick-witted “zinger”. Remember when Hilary Clinton goaded him in 2016 about him not paying his share of taxes? “That makes me smart” was the Trump New Yorker wisecrack. It wasn’t what Clinton was expecting, and his fans agreed with him. Biden supporters would be right to feel nervous.
