While Emmanuel Macron's departure is still a long way off, the municipal elections of 2026 will see French political parties kick-start their campaigning for the presidential election of 2027. But with some likely contenders already beginning to emerge, we take a look at who could be on the ballot in two years' time.
The leader of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems inclined, at the moment, to stand for a fourth time – having taken third place behind National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen in the 2022 ballot.
On the left, a broad church
The 2022 result, alongside the collective memory of the relatively short-lived Nupes left-wing alliance, as well as the divisions that arose in the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance in the wake of their victory in the 2024 legislative elections, will have certainly pre-armed Mélenchon with knowledge of the contention he arouses in some sections of the electorate, and on his side of the political spectrum.
Over at the Socialist Party (PS), the internal ballot currently under way to elect a new leader raises the crucial question of whether the party will field its own presidential candidate for 2027, or take part in a wider primary within the left.
President Macron set to unfurl two-year plan amid prospect of referendums
The latter is the line taken by the current First Secretary Olivier Faure – "a primary from Ruffin to Glucksmann".
François Ruffin was a key organiser of the rapidly formed NFP leftist alliance during the 2024 elections, and is now a member of the Ecologist Group in the National Assembly, having parted ways with LFI and Mélenchon during the campaign.
MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, a member of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament, was named one of 20 "Rising Stars" at The Parliament Magazine's annual MEP awards last year.
Known for his campaigning on forced labour in China and the plight of Uyghurs held in the Xinjiang internment camps, he was one of five MEPs under sanction by China until April this year, lifted following negotiations with the European Parliament.
This kaleidoscopic primary could also include feminist activist Clémentine Autain, one of a group of MPs who founded the L'Après ("The Aftermath") party in the wake of a split from LFI, as well as Fabien Roussel, leader of the French Communist Party and their candidate for the 2022 election – in which he came eighth.
While Ruffin is in favour of this wider primary, Glucksmann is not, and the other candidates in the PS internal ballot – Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol and Boris Vallaud – would also like to see the party set out its own stall for the election.
In the centre, the great reshuffle
Former PM Gabriel Attal, now the leader of Macron's Renaissance party in the National Assembly, may not have declared his intentions, but is considered to be taking his first steps towards the Elysée Palace – having been greeted with chants of "Attal president!" at a rally on 6 April in the Parisian suburb of Saint-Denis, as reported by Le Monde.
Meanwhile, his fellow former PM Édouard Philippe has announced that he will run, as widely expected.
"I'm preparing to propose things to the French. What I propose will be massive. The French will decide," Philippe told Le Point magazine on 3 September last year, adding that he would prioritise education, public order and the budget.
A right-winger who was Macron's first prime minister has remained a popular figure since resigning in July 2020, after which he returned to his job as mayor of Le Havre and formed his own centre-right party, Horizons.
Former French PM Edouard Philippe announces 2027 presidential bid
At Renaissance, although Élisabeth Borne has not ruled out a candidacy, she will have heard those chants of "Attal president" coming loud and clear from Saint-Denis
Yaël Braun-Pivet, the current president of the National Assembly, has not made any announcements about the 2027 elections – but she has published a book. À ma place ("In My Place") was published on 10 April. In an interview on that day when asked whether she was considering running in 2027, she said: "I'm not thinking about it. My focus today is having a country that functions democratically."
Nor does the book contain any mention of a potential candidacy, although she does write that "women need to take the lead".
On the right, a new order emerges
After the melodrama of Éric Ciotti's departure from the Republicans (LR) – following his calls for an alliance with the far-right RN ahead of last summer's snap legislative elections – the centre-right party has finally settled the question of its leadership, with Bruno Retailleau elected as president last month.
Retailleau wins leadership of Les Républicains party, paving way for 2027 presidential bid
While Interior Minister Retailleau will be making the most of his dual role, many believe he will also be focusing on his candidacy for the presidency. But does this mean the choice of candidate is a done deal for the Republicans?
Xavier Bertrand, who played a key role in Nicolas Sarkozy's 2007 presidential campaign; Mayor of Cannes David Lisnard (notable as one of the mayors who in 2016 attempted to ban the burkini); Laurent Wauquiez, who was defeated by Retailleau in the leadership contest, and even former prime minister Michel Barnier, may beg to differ
For the time being, there is no general consensus emerging from the conservative end of the political spectrum.
To their (far) right, Le Pen's previous election defeats loom large, as does her conviction for embezzling EU funds, which rules her out of the 2027 election thanks to a five-year ban on running for office – although she has said she will appeal this decision.
Does 'politically dead' Marine Le Pen still have a path to power?
Pending this ruling, inevitably the question of whether Le Pen's dauphin and RN president Jordan Bardella will take her place in the running arises – although this could bring with it electoral uncertainty.
Meanwhile, despite Éric Zemmour's far-right Reconquest party currently holding no seats in the National Assembly or the Senate, and having one MEP in the European Parliament – his partner, Sarah Knafo – Zemmour himself has not disappeared from view, and Knafo is increasingly visible.
The 32-year-old is known to be a fan of both Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and the couple were guests at Trump's January inauguration – among the few French politicians to receive invitations.
(With newswires, and partially adapted from this article from RFI's French service.)
