On the final sitting day of parliament last week, a duo named Mary and Joe were name-checked 10 times by members of the Victorian government.
The premier, Jacinta Allan, described the pair as “working people – people with jobs to do and with kids to raise”, while the transport infrastructure minister, Gabrielle Williams, said they were “Victorians who get up early, they work hard and they want a fair go”. The health minister, Mary-Anne Thomas, said the government “thinks about Mary and Joe every single day”, while the energy minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, said they were “helping Victorians like Mary and Joe” deal with the cost of living.
Tarneit MP Dylan Wight was ejected after yelling “Mary and Joe hate you” to the opposition.
It was no coincidence. The night before, the Australian reported that the premier’s chief of staff, Damian Karmelich, had been frustrating the cabinet with constant references to the pair, described by the broadsheet as a shorthand for “mainstream” Victorians.
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But Mary and Joe aren’t just a fictional couple. Guardian Australia can reveal they are carefully crafted profiles of undecided voters Labor believes will determine the outcome of the November 2026 state election.
Kos Samaras, the former Labor strategist turned pollster with RedBridge, said the duo were the product of “months of deep research” similar to that conducted by the party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, before the May federal election.
“What you’re seeing [in parliament] is really the tip of the iceberg. What’s underneath the surface is a much larger body of work,” Samaras said.
Sources not authorised to speak publicly describe Mary and Joe as voters who dislike the Liberal party and likely voted Labor in recent federal and 2022 state elections. But they are reluctant to support Labor for a fourth term in 2026 – a feat that has never been achieved in Victoria.
Mary and Joe
- Currently identifying as undecided voters
- Dislike the Liberal party
- Voted Labor in recent federal and Victorian elections
- Reluctant to support Labor for a fourth term in 2026
Joe
- Probably male
- Gen X or Y
- Lives in the suburbs with family
- Cares about crime and growing debt
- May be leaning towards voting for minor parties
Mary
- Probably female
- Gen Y or Z. If an older millennial, likely has children
- Lives in inner-Melbourne
- Identifies as progressive
- Leaning towards votings for the Green
Mary has been identified as likely female, generation Y or gen Z, living in Melbourne and the inner suburbs. If she is an older millennial, she is likely to have children. She would consider herself progressive and is leaning towards supporting the Greens or an independent.
Samaras said her main concerns would be health, cost of living and education. She is also worried about the increase in crime but “doesn’t want a lock-them-up approach”, he said.
“They see crime as a sign of societal fracture,” Samaras said.
Joe is described by sources as most likely male, a younger gen X or older gen Y, living in the suburbs with his family. He is more concerned about crime and debt than Mary and, according to Samaras, “holds progressive and conservative views at the same time”.
“Joe probably voted yes at the marriage equality plebiscite and no at the voice referendum,” he said.
It is harder to say who Joe is leaning towards voting for but Samaras pointed to results at the Werribee byelection – where Labor retained the seat with just 28.9% of first-preference votes, losing support not to the Liberals but to the independent candidate, Paul Hopper, Legalise Cannabis, Victorian Socialists and the Greens.
Samaras said both Mary and Joe would probably be disengaged from traditional media, with the government likely to emulate their federal counterparts in reaching out to them via podcasts and social media during the campaign.
Victorian Labor’s current polling shows a 32% primary vote, down from 35% at the 2022 election. It is understood the Mary and Joe strategy is focused on lifting it to about 34%.
Sources in the premier’s office downplayed the significance of Mary and Joe, describing them instead as a “communication tool” designed to help “focus” the cabinet and caucus on the concerns of “everyday people”.
Mary and Joe are not without precedent. In the 1990s, Liberal pollster Mark Textor created two archetypal swing voters: Phil and Jenny. During their successful 1996 campaign, Liberal candidates were constantly asked by headquarters: “Have you spoken to Phil and Jenny lately?”
However, there are mixed views in cabinet, with one minister describing Allan and her inner circle as “more focused on the narrative for the next election” than on governing.
Indeed, the existence of Mary and Joe is the fifth internal leak from the cabinet in recent weeks, suggesting growing frustration at the highest level of the government.
But Samaras said similar criticism was levelled towards the then state secretary, Sam Rae, and himself in the lead-up to the 2018 campaign.
“This is, unfortunately, a tradition within the Labor party – attacking those who run the campaigns,” he said.
