David Cameron will be keeping a beady eye on eight ministers who may be tempted to resign from the government to campaign for Britain to leave the EU in his planned referendum.
The eight who might resign to campaign for a No vote break down into the following categories:
Special status
The list is headed by Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, who is open about his belief that Britain needs to renegotiate a fundamental relationship with the EU. But the work and pensions secretary was encouraged when the prime minister appointed him to the cabinet committee that will oversee the EU referendum negotiations. Duncan Smith took this as a sign that the prime minister wanted to preside over a broad church.
As a former leader, Duncan Smith has a special status and will need to be treated with respect by No 10. Cameron appointed him to the cabinet committee overseeing the referendum because he knows that his resignation would mark a severe blow and would galvanise the No campaign. But Duncan Smith is not interested in the baubles of office, which means he is likely to be unmoved by any sweeteners to remain in office. If he believes the deal is insufficient he will go.
Eurosceptic newbies
The prime minister is understood to have made clear to the three hardline Eurosceptics he recruited – or promoted – to his government after the election that he expected them to support him all the way through on the EU. This means that John Whittingdale, the culture secretary, Priti Patel, the employment minister who attends cabinet, and Dominic Raab, the justice minister, may well have signed up for the long haul.
Whittingdale served as Margaret Thatcher’s political secretary in her last years in office when she adopted an acutely Eurosceptic tone. If Cameron manages to secure a British opt-out from the EU’s founding ambition to create an ever closer union, Whittingdale may be able to say that he has fulfilled one of Thatcher’s key goals in her famous Bruges speech in September 1988, delivered nine months after he started in No 10 as her political secretary. The late prime minister said: “It would be folly to try to fit them [individual member states] into some sort of identikit European personality.”
Patel first made her name as a leading activist in the Referendum Party founded by the late James Goldsmith. If she remains in government, she may argue that she helped achieve the eurosceptic party’s main goal – a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
Raab is highly Eurosceptic. But he may feel he personally has a bigger task – helping to repeal the Human Rights Act and transforming Britain’s relationship with the European court of human rights, which is separate from the EU.
Torn loyalists
Michael Gove, the justice sectary, and Oliver Letwin, the cabinet office minister, harbour deep doubts about the merits of Britain’s EU membership. These are unlikely to be resolved by what Eurosceptics regard as Cameron’s modest renegotiation plans. But the pair, who are among the prime minister’s closest cabinet allies, are likely to place their personal loyalty to Cameron first.
Leadership hopeful
Sajid Javid, the business secretary, is being talked of as the one potential leadership candidate who might see merit in marking himself out from his mentor, George Osborne, by resigning to join or even lead the No campaign. But the prime minister has given Javid a place on the cabinet committee overseeing the referendum. This would make it difficult for him to campaign for a No vote so soon after being involved in the government’s negotiations. Javid likes to regard himself as a political radical in the tradition of Thatcher. But he is personally quite cautious.
The long-serving Eurosceptic
Chris Grayling, the leader of the Commons, has a long and consistent track record as a Eurosceptic since his election to parliament at the same time as Cameron in 2001. His views on the EU are similar to those of Gove and Letwin. But there is one key difference – Grayling owes no personal loyalty to Cameron, who has treated him in a cavalier manner over the years.
Grayling was demoted from his position of shadow home secretary at the time of the 2010 election – one of the most senior posts in the shadow cabinet – to the post of employment minister outside the cabinet after the election. He was eventually promoted to become justice secretary in 2012 but was demoted to leader of the Commons after last month’s general election.
