Further evidence that Michael Howard's "dog-whistle" may be rousing reluctant Labour voters rather than core Tories comes in the latest NOP/Independent poll which gives Tony Blair a nerve-steadying six-point lead. It also reports the Labour vote "firming up" with 67% saying they are certain to vote – not far off the actual figure in 2001.
Like most of the weekend polls, the fieldwork was done during the Papal funeral/royal wedding "truce" which may have benefited the government. Interesting subsidiary questions by NOP on tax cuts suggest that a 2:1 majority prefer spending on public services over tax cuts. Only 30% say they prefer tax cuts which suggests that Tory promises in this direction are aimed, like immigration, at shoring up their core vote.
Some good news for the Liberal Democrats with 73% saying they want to see the top rate of tax raised to 50% for those earning over £100,000 a year. The question that it does not answer, though, is whether the public believe it is possible to promise tax cuts and a boost to public services.
Alan Travis, home affairs editor
