Believe it or not, Michigan State football could still find its way into a bowl game this year.
At 3-7, Michigan State can not finish the season with a winning record and reach the minimum six wins necessary to earn a bowl bid. However, Brett McMurphy of Action Network is projecting there could be at least three spots for teams at 5-7 to receive a bowl bid due to there not being enough six-win teams this year.
Click on the tweet below to get a full breakdown from McMurphy on how this all works:
My Bowl-Eligibility Tracker: 58 teams in for 82 spots. 36 teams still able to reach 6 wins. Conference breakdown w/projected point spreads for final 2 weeks. If favored teams win all games, only 19 more get bowl eligible & will need three 5-7 teams ⤵️https://t.co/Ow24zflzME
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 16, 2023
When it comes to which 5-7 teams receive a bowl bid, that’s when the Academic Progress Report (APR) rankings come into place. According to College Football News, Michigan State ranks No. 28 nationally which is one of the higher spots when it comes to teams that could finish 5-7 and are in play for one of the open bowl bids.
So what you’re telling me is there’s a chance? Yes, there is! The odds aren’t particularly high (not at all actually) but still a chance nonetheless. Here’s what needs to happen for Michigan State to receive a bowl bid this year:
- Win their remaining two games against Indiana and Penn State. A loss in either of those games ends any postseason chances for the Spartans.
- Have enough things bounce the Spartans’ way where there are enough slots for 5-7 teams to receive a bowl bid and Michigan State is listed as one of the top 5-7 teams in the APR rankings to receive one of those bids.
Like I said, it’s not very likely at all but, hey, after this season I think we would all take any chance of reaching the postseason at this point, right?
So with all of this being said, I’ve outlined below a number of games this week that could impact the Spartans’ chances of going bowling. These are games that are specific to teams that may reach bowl eligibility or could reach at least five wins and end up ahead of the Spartans in the APR bowl bid pecking order.
If Michigan State beats Indiana this week, then I’ll reassess and provide an update on where things stand heading into the season finale against Penn State. For now, check out the Michigan State rooting guide for week 12 games below:
Michigan State at Indiana (-3.5)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: Big Ten Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Michigan State win
This one is straightforward as Michigan State must win both of their remaining games to remain alive for a bowl bid. So if the Spartans lose to Indiana, the rest of the games after this in our list are irrelevant.
USF at UTSA (-16)
When: 9 p.m. ET on Friday
TV: ESPN2
Preferred MSU Outcome: UTSA win
USF is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Bulls are ranked No. 69 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over USF if both teams finish 5-7.
Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-14.5)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: SEC Network+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Southern Miss win
Mississippi State is 4-6 on the season and ranks higher than Michigan State in APR at No. 19. So if the Bulldogs win one more game they’ll end up higher than the Spartans in the 5-7 bowl bid pecking order.
Oklahoma (-24) at BYU
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN
Preferred MSU Outcome: Oklahoma win
BYU is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Cougars are ranked No. 105 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over BYU if both teams finish 5-7.
Rice (-2.5) at Charlotte
When: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Charlotte win
Rice is 4-6 on the season and ranks higher than Michigan State in APR at No. 15. So if the Owls win one more game they’ll end up higher than the Spartans in the 5-7 bowl bid pecking order.
Cincinnati at West Virginia (-6.5)
When: 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: West Virginia win
Cincinnati is 3-7 on the season and ranks higher than Michigan State in APR at No. 6. So if the Bearcats win both of their remaining games they’ll end up higher than the Spartans in the 5-7 bowl bid pecking order.
Texas State (-3.5) at Arkansas State
When: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Texas State win
Arkansas State is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves are ranked No. 69 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over Arkansas State if both teams finish 5-7.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-24.5)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: NBC
Preferred MSU Outcome: Notre Dame win
Wake Forest is 4-6 on the season and ranks higher than Michigan State in APR at No. 8. So if the Demon Deacons win one more game they’ll end up higher than the Spartans in the 5-7 bowl bid pecking order.
Louisana at Troy (-16.5)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: NFL Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Troy win
Louisana is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Ragin’ Cajuns are ranked No. 109 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over Arkansas State if both teams finish 5-7.
NC State at Virginia Tech (-2.5)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ACC Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: NC State win
Virginia Tech is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Hokies are ranked No. 69 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over Virginia Tech if both teams finish 5-7.
Illinois at Iowa (-3)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: Fox Sports 1
Preferred MSU Outcome: Iowa win
Illinois is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Fighting Illini are ranked No. 85 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over Illinois if both teams finish 5-7.
UCF at Texas Tech (-2.5)
When: 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: Fox Sports 2
Preferred MSU Outcome: UCF win
Both UCF and Texas Tech are 5-5 on the season, but UCF is higher in the APR rankings than Michigan State while Texas Tech is lower. So, the best-case scenario for Michigan State would be a UCF victory over Texas Tech, with the Red Raiders also losing against Texas next week.
Boise State (-3.5) at Utah State
When: 7 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: CBS Sports Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Boise State win
Both Boise State and Utah State are 5-5 on the season, but Boise State is higher in the APR rankings than Michigan State, while Utah State is lower. So, the best-case scenario for Michigan State would be a Boise State victory over Utah State, with the Aggies also losing against New Mexico next week.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (-5.5)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: NBC
Preferred MSU Outcome: Wisconsin win
Both Wisconsin and Nebraska are 5-5 on the season, but Wisconsin is higher in the APR rankings than Michigan State, while Nebraska is lower. So, the best-case scenario for Michigan State would be a Wisconsin victory over Nebraska, with the Cornhuskers also losing against Iowa next week.
Florida at Missouri (-11)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN
Preferred MSU Outcome: Missouri win
Florida is 5-5 on the season and needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Gators are ranked No. 43 in APR so Michigan State would get bowl bid priority over Florida if both teams finish 5-7.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-0.5)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: SEC Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Kentucky win
South Carolina is 4-6 on the season and ranks higher than Michigan State in APR at No. 23. So if the Gamecocks win one more game they’ll end up higher than the Spartans in the 5-7 bowl bid pecking order.
Syracuse at Georgia Tech (-6.5)
When: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ACC Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Syracuse win
Both Syracuse and Georgia Tech are 5-5 on the year and both are below Michigan State in APR rankings. The winner of this game will be bowl eligible and the loser will have to win next week to reach the postseason. Georgia Tech has to play Georgia (which is most likely a loss) and Syracuse faces Wake Forest (which is a toss-up). Knowing that Michigan State needs Wake Forest to lose out as noted earlier, the best-case scenario for the Spartans is Syracuse winning their remaining two games with Georgia Tech losing their final two games. So for this particular matchup, Michigan State wants to see Syracuse earn the victory.
Other Games To Follow
Below are some other games of note that could impact the Spartans’ chances of receiving a bowl bid at 5-7:
- Colorado (4-6) at Washington State (4-6)
- Purdue (3-7) at Northwestern (5-5)
- Coastal Carolina (7-3) at Army (4-6)
- Tulane (9-1) at Florida Atlantic (4-6)
- East Carolina (2-8) at Navy (4-5)
- Nevada (2-8) at Colorado State (4-6)
- Sam Houston State (2-8) at Western Kentucky (5-5)
- Baylor (3-7) at TCU (4-6)
- Oklahoma State (7-3) at Houston (4-6)
- Minnesota (5-5) at Ohio State (10-0)
- Old Dominion (4-6) at Georgia Southern (6-4)
- Cal (4-6) at Stanford (3-7)
- Florida International (4-6) at Arkansas (3-7)
- San Diego State (3-7) at San Jose State (5-5)
The results from this week’s games will determine if how impactful the games listed above will be for Michigan State. Should the Spartans beat Indiana on Saturday, then the results from the games above will certainly come into consideration in next week’s updated review.
Final Thoughts Entering Week 12
Do I honestly think Michigan State will find themselves in a bowl game this year? No way. The odds of the Spartans beating both Indiana and Penn State to end the season are already extremely low. Then, mix in all of the other results that need to occur outside of their control and it clearly is very unlikely.
But… there’s at least a sliver of hope still out there. It starts with winning in Bloomington, Ind. on Saturday and from there we will reassess next week. It would be fun to at least have something to play for in the season finale against Penn State at Ford Field in Detroit. That’s what I’m personally hoping for out of all of this after a brutal season for the Spartans.
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