The NBA season is nearly here, and with NBA 2K26 finally in our hands, we’ve taken to the game to answer questions about what to expect from the season ahead. How new rookies bed into the league and develop, or not, into stars is always an interesting thing to track, so today, we’re jumping five years into the future to see how this year’s first round draft picks turn out.
Year One
While our main goal is examining the long term, we checked in year-to-year to see how things played out for the young stars, most notably in their rookie season:
The All-Rookie Teams
NBA First Team All-Rookie
- Cooper Flagg (F – DAL)
- Dylan Harper (G – SAS)
- Ace Bailey (F – UTA)
- V.J. Edgecomb (G – PHI)
- Egor Demin (G – BKN)
NBA Second Team All-Rookie
- Tre Johnson (G – WAS)
- Noian Traore (G – BKN)
- Jeremiah Fears (G – NOP)
- Kon Knueppel (G – CHA)
- Danny Wolf (F – BKN)
Rookie Playoff Performers
Brooklyn’s collection of five rookies made it to the second round of the play-in, while adding a #2 pick to Victor Wembanyama saw San Antonio reach the first round as a #5 seed. Derik Queen and the Pels were one seed behind them, but he never saw the court in their round one exit. Unsurprisingly, the standout was top pick Cooper Flagg. Surprisingly, he validated digital Nico Harrison by helping the Mavs win the title.
The Five Year Plan
After checking out the first season, we simulated four more years to see where these players stood as they played out the primes of their careers. The results were a mixed bag, with GMs largely having gotten the order of selections pretty well sorted on the balance.
Booms
It’s always fun to start with the good news, which is why we’ve highlighted these players whose selections will go down as unqualified successes. If they’re on your team in real world you should be hoping that the 2K engine knows ball:
Cooper Flagg
The top pick was an absolute megastar in the 2K25 simulation we did, and the folks behind 2K clearly value him as highly as the custom draft class creators. Flagg was a contributor in the championship run and was the league’s most improved player in year two, where he made the All-NBA third team. Dallas fell short in the finals, but not until Flagg was the Western Conference Finals MVP. By year three, he was a regular first-team All-NBA player and regularly on All-Defensive teams, too. By year five, he was the best player in the league.
Khaman Maluach
Living up to Flagg was never on the cards for the others, but if Maluach’s career follows the 2K trajectory, he’s on a good path. He made second team All-Defense years two through four before improving that to first team in the final year of the sim, where he reached a very respectable 88 OVR with time to grow.
Kasparas Jakucionis
Drafted 20th overall, Jakucionis finished the simulations as one of the top ten players in the draft by OVR. He also captured a Sixth Man of the Year award in year three of the simulation, showing his ability to contribute to a team in a way most teams would be happy to take for a late first-round selection.
Busts
Judging busts in an NBA simulation can be a bit challenging for a league where there are so few roster spots, even fewer spots on the court, and an accordingly lower probability that any particular pick works out. These are the players, or draft classes, that failed to meet the grade even with those considerations in place:
Kon Knueppel
As an 86 OVR, Knueppel is still getting solid minutes in the NBA five seasons later, so his career is far from a failure. That said, he’s both no longer with the team that drafted him, having left the Hornets for Denver after four forgettable seasons of mediocre production, and the only top-five pick to not be in the 90s. Not the production you want from a lottery pick.
Noa Essengue
Taken by the Bulls at #12, Essengue finds himself a 79-rated deep bench player five years later. He is the only player taken in the top half of the draft to have not crested the 80-point barrier, earning him an unwelcome distinction and a spot on this list.
The Brooklyn Nets Draft Class
With one out of every six picks in the first round, you’d have backed the Nets to find somebody who could contribute in the long haul, even with several of them in the later stages of the round, but they drew blank after blank. Their best performer was Nolan Traore, who at 19th overall and joint-14th highest rated after five years slightly outperformed his slot. Top-ten pick Egor Demin was the lowest-rated player in that group, Drake Powell went before several higher-rated players, and late rounders Ben Saraf and Danny Wolf were the two lowest-rated first rounders still in the league. What’s more, none of the five was still a Net five years later.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser
It’s a bit unfair to call anyone drafted last in the opening round a bust, given the slot is far from a guarantee, but Niederhauser earns this mark by being the only player taken in the first round to be out of the league entirely. Even Saraf and his 69 rating, eight points lower than Wolf’s second-worst OVR, was hanging around longer than Niederhauser.
Where The First Rounders Are Five Years Later
- #1 – Cooper Flagg (PF – DAL): 98 OVR
- #2 – Dylan Harper (SG/PG – SAS): 92 OVR
- #3 – V.J. Edgecomb (SG – PHI): 90 OVR
- #4 – Kon Knueppel (SF – CHA): 86 OVR, In Denver
- #5 – Ace Bailey (SG – UTA): 90 OVR
- #6 – Tre Johnson (SG – WAS): 85 OVR, In Sacramento
- #7 – Jeremiah Fears (PG – NOP): 90 OVR
- #8 – Egor Demin (PG – BKN): 80 OVR, In Milwaukee
- #9 – Collin Murray-Boyles (PF – TOR): 81 OVR
- #10 – Khaman Maluach (C – HOU): 88 OVR, In Phoenix
- #11 – Cedric Coward (SF – MEM): 82 OVR
- #12 – Noa Essengue (PF – CHI): 79 OVR, In Phoenix
- #13 – Derik Queen (C – NOP): 84 OVR
- #14 – Carter Bryant (SF – SAS): 80 OVR
- #15 – Thomas Sorber (C – OKC): 83 OVR
- #16 – Yang Hansen (C – POR): 78 OVR, In Chicago
- #17 – Joan Beringer (C – MIN): 82 OVR, In Philadelphia
- #18 – Walter Clayton Jr. (PG – WAS): 79 OVR, In Utah
- #19 – Nolan Traore (PG – BKN): 81 OVR, In Denver
- #20 – Kasparas Jakucionis (PG – MIA): 83 OVR, In Minnesota
- #21 – Will Riley (SF – UTA): 77 OVR, In Dallas
- #22 – Drake Powell (SG – BKN): 78 OVR, In Orlando
- #23 – Asa Newell (PF – ATL): 81 OVR
- #24 – Nique Clifford (SG – SAC): 75 OVR, In Houston
- #25 – Jase Richardson (SG – ORL): 81 OVR
- #26 – Ben Saraf (SG – BKN): 69 OVR, In Philadelphia
- #27 – Danny Wolf (PF – BKN): 77 OVR, In Philadelphia
- #28 – Hugo Gonzalez (SF – BOS): 79 OVR, In Portland
- #29 – Liam McNeeley (SF – CHA): 78 OVR, In Miami
- #30 – Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C – LAC): Out of the league
