Usually, most articles about an upcoming NBA draft try and figure out the best possible prospects the Boston Celtics or other teams in the league should be looking to select with their precious draft assets, and for good reason.
Perhaps the most valuable team-building tools in a cap-restricted league, draft picks are only as helpful as they players they are used to land, so maximizing your knowledge in making that decision is a normal first step in the process of making the right decision.
But knowing who not to take can be almost as important as the data guiding the player a franchise ultimately settles on, and it is that end that this article will focus on.
The Celtics Wire surveyed a cross-section of respected draft experts, beat writers and analysts around the NBA media sphere, with a solid balance of non-Boston writers and fans to offset green-tinted lenses.
Our panel includes Double Clutch U.K.’s Josh Coyne, Off the Glass’s Alex Goldberg, HoopsHype’s Bryan Kalbrosky, unsigned free agent Simon Rath, Rookie Wire’s Ben Pfeifer, Celtics Hub’s Cameron Tabatabaie, Celtics Blog’s Adam Taylor and The Athletic’s Jared Weiss — a big thanks to all for your time and thoughts.
The results we received highlighted some strong feelings about some players we expected, as well as a few we didn’t — and we think the analysis of all the prospects brought up as must-avoids an intriguing window into our collective idea about what it is the Celtics want, and should want.
We’ll start with the prospects mentioned by only one respondent, and move our way towards those with the most concern around them, saving the biggest red-flag prospects for last.
So without further ado, let’s look at the results.
Leandro Bolmaro – guard/forward – FC Barcelona
Coyne: Roles are still being defined by the Celtics players, but it’s recognized that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the future of the franchise, while Marcus Smart is the heart and soul of the roster.
If the Celtics took Bolmaro, they could get a serviceable wing with elite professional experience, but could also create a logjam at the position they have the least need. Another potential stash, as Boston attempts to immediately bolster a roster suited to contend.
Cole Anthony – guard – North Carolina
Kalbrosky: He was 37-for-69 (53.6%) within five feet of the basket, which ranked 255 out of the 321 high-major players who had as many attempts in that zone.
He has a vertical of 40-plus inches but averaged just 0.14 dunk attempts per game.
Tre Jones – guard – Duke
Weiss: Jones is a thrilling point of attack defender and transition player on both ends. But I don’t see him having starting caliber offensive potential and his defense only provides significant value against point guards and combo guards.
He’ll make a playoff team in the late first round happy, but is not worth a big swing the Celtics should take with the Memphis pick. I prefer the much smaller Tremont Waters’ more dynamic two-way talent to him anyway.
Daniel Oturu – center – Minnesota
Pfeifer: For me, he’s a “meh” big.
I don’t think Oturu is a real prospect given the current value of big men.
Isaiah Stewart – power forward – Washington
Pfeifer: Another “meh” big, he could make a rotation.
But — again — probably not enough to add real value given how replaceable bigs are.
Tyrese Maxey – guard – Kentucky
Taylor: Maxey has struggled to find a consistent shot this season.
And with Boston in need of additional firepower off the bench Maxey doesn’t project as a good fit.
Patrick Williams – small forward – Florida State
Goldberg: He is too much of a project.
He has tantalizing athleticism but no apparent NBA-ready skills, and strikes me as someone who will need multiple years in the G League or overseas.
R.J. Hampton – guard – New Zealand Breakers
Rath: I am a big R.J. fan, so this isn’t about the player, it is more about the situation. They drafted Romeo Langford at 14 last year and he barely played last season and will need reps to develop this year.
Having R.J. there would hinder that.
Tabatabaie: His game is too much like Romeo Langford, and the Celtics have enough young offensive talent to develop as is.
Josh Green – shooting guard – Arizona
Kalbrosky: One of the biggest concerns at the collegiate level was that more than one-third of his field-goal attempts have come from midrange — yet he shot just 30-of-108 (27.8%) on these looks. The 6-foot-6 Green also made fewer than one 3-pointer per game, which is concerning for a wing.
Weiss: Green looks like he can be an impact flexible wing defender right away, but I don’t see him filling a different role than Romeo Langford and he has pretty limited offensive upside. He just doesn’t bring much of a complementary package to the table for a team that should be looking for something unique or with major upside with the Memphis pick.
Jaden McDaniels – small forward – Washington
Kalbrosky: He averaged an inefficient 0.82 points per possession on offense, which ranked in the 41st percentile in the nation. Meanwhile, his turnover rate (23.4%) was among the bottom 25 among all high-major freshmen. He also committed 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes on defense, which ranked in the bottom 20 among all high-major freshmen.
Tabatabaie: His inconsistency is worrisome, and I suspect his defense and rebounding will always lack.
Theo Maledon – guard – ASVEL
Goldberg: He seems intriguing as a long term prospect, but is not a good fit for a Celtics team trying to contend right now. I’m concerned that he is the second coming of Dante Exum.
Weiss: Another combo guard who projects around the Memphis pick that just doesn’t seem to have any standout skills that could give him major upside. This pick is their last chance to grab a potential starter on a contender and Maledon is a nice pick-and-roll player but isn’t a three level scorer, isn’t a deft passer or finisher, and is just meh on defense.
Aleksej Pokuševski – power forward – Olympiacos B
Coyne: In some ways, Boston’s window of contention is merely opening but who knows how the roster may look in two years? While they have a chance of making noise and seeing seven years of front office witchcraft pay off, they will look to seize the moment. Drafting Pokuševski may be the opposite of that. The Serbian center has upside, but scouting reports agree that he has a ways to go before he’s ready to help a contending NBA team and would almost certainly be stashed. His slight frame, lack of experience, aversion to contact and defensive lapses may put off an organization that has seen too much substandard effort from reserve centers in recent years.
Rath: With the Celtics having Tatum, Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart ready to win now I do not think Poku would develop fast enough or get the right minutes to reach whatever ceiling people think he has. If he is there at 30 then I would pull the trigger, but with their 17th pick I would draft someone who could contribute early on.
Precious Achiuwa – forward/center – Memphis
Pfeiffer: Precious would be the least bad pick of the three I have in mind if Boston deploys him as a straight 5, but 17ish is too high for him in my opinion given his decision making and shooting issues.
Goldberg: I’m fine with taking him at 30, but it is mistake to take him at 17. Also, he is redundant with Robert Williams III.
Taylor: Tankathon has him going to Boston at 17 in their mock draft. I’m not sold on his basketball IQ, nor his ability to feed the rock, projects as a project and Boston has enough of those currently.
Nico Mannion – point guard – Arizona
Coyne: Mannion falls into the roll-of-the-dice category. I’ve tracked the Italian-American guard for a few years now, after notable performances with Italy’s youth setup in various FIBA tournaments. He’s enjoyed ups and downs in productivity at Arizona but showed excellent change of speed, unselfishness and aggression on the defensive end at times. Unfortunately – and I wish this wasn’t so – my issue with Mannion is cosmetic. I’m not shaming anybody here, I just feel his look would be a little on-the-nose with the Gaelic aesthetic of the team. That, and his lack of size and length on defence that would make it difficult for him to crack Brad Stevens rotation.
Rath: I have seen Nico mocked in the first round in a few places and I don’t see him there. I like several other point guards a lot more in round one.
Tabatabaie: I think he’s probably a little over-hyped. I fear he doesn’t really have the chops to make it in the NBA.
Taylor: There are other guards in the league who would suit the Celtics system far better, there’s also questions surround Mannion’s strength and shooting ability from deep as he enters the league.
