The over-qualified recruiters for international agencies will be banging on Jacinda Ardern's door, but she can afford to take her time
When Winston Peters left the Beehive, he headed out fishing – and if the Whakataki Times is to be believed, Jacinda Ardern will do the same, on a new TV fishing show. "It’s gonna be called 'Catching Carp with Clarke and Cindy'," the satirical online newspaper gleefully announced.
Frankly, that guess is as good as any right now. Announcing her resignation, Ardern made it clear that the decision to quit was one she'd made only in the summer break. For the foreseeable future, her focus will be on spending time with fiancé Clarke Gayford and their four-year-old daughter Neve.
There have been persistent rumours over the past few months that she was lining up a job on the international stage, but even trenchant critics accept at face value her assurance that the decision to quit was made only in the past few weeks. There's been little time for meetings with recruiters.
When it does come time to carve out a new career, the safe money is that she will follow the last two Labour Prime Ministers, Mike Moore and Helen Clark, onto the international stage.
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Asked by Newsroom what that next step could be – or should be – Helen Clark instead replies with a statement of what the outgoing prime minister stands for. Ardern has positioned New Zealand "as a country which stands for international co-operation and decent values," Clark says.
In other words, Ardern will be inclined to follow both her head and her heart into a role in which privileged nations work with more vulnerable communities to support their development.
Clark – herself a former prime minister who went on to lead the world's biggest international development agency – has this week been attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. She's been there with many global leaders from the public and private sectors – including David Beasley, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme.
Beasley publicly confirmed just a few days before Christmas that he would be standing down in April 2023 and, with transparency uncharacteristic of the UN, his role is now being advertised. The Rome-based World Food Programme has 23,000 staff and a budget of US$14.1 billion (NZ$22b).
That money comes entirely from voluntary donations by the US and other western governments.
Indeed the New Zealand Government, under Ardern's leadership, has increased its donations from $8.5m in 2019, to $20.4m last year – including $3m in response to conflicts in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Myanmar. It is on track to up the ante even further this year.
A big part of the role of World Food Programme executive director is highlighting the problems (the World Economic Forum had just recognised food security and cost of living as the world's most immediate threats) and raising those donations.
"I've been here at Davos World Economic Forum for the last few days," Beasley says this morning, in a video statement on Twitter.
"We have a crisis on-hand and it's all hands on deck," he says. "I'm asking the leaders – particularly the private sector because they are key to ending poverty and ending hunger – bring your expertise, bring your innovation, and let's work together to save lives and change lives."
Applications for Beasley's job close on January 30; the timeframe is probably a tad tight for Ardern to do the international deals necessary to win such a role.
She's already (briefly) led one international organisation – though not one that she boasts of on the campaign trail. At the age of 27, she was elected president of the International Union of Socialist Youth.
Other relevant opportunities are coming up: Countries are due to vote shortly on the leadership of the World Food Programme's parent body, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Its director-general Qu Dongyu would normally expect a second four-year term, but he is seen as too closely connected to Beijing – to the extent that for some months, he refused to accept that Russia's invasion of Ukraine constituted a food security crisis.
Next year, the Commonwealth selects a new Secretary-General, a role that was previously held by former New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Don McKinnon. And it's somewhat outside Ardern's wheelhouse, but the International Maritime Organization will elect a new head, as will UN-Habitat, and the International Monetary Fund.
At the World Bank, US president Joe Biden is expected to replace his predecessor's nominee as bank president. David Malpass provoked a storm of controversy by equivocating over whether humans were contributing to climate change.
There's even the potential to create a new role in a new organisation. One of Ardern's most recognised achievements was in the aftermath of the mosque terror attacks. She and French president Emmanuel Macron co-founded the Christchurch Call – a unique community of more than 120 governments, online service providers, and civil society organisations acting together to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.
This year, New Zealand and some of the other members intend to apply the same model to combating disinformation, harassment, abuse, and hatred online, and issues affecting youth. This could provide Ardern the opportunity to leverage her Christchurch Call renown into leading a wider collaboration to make civil society more civil.
Charles Finny, a former diplomat and lead trade negotiator for New Zealand who now works in Wellington for consultancy Saunders Unsworth, says he would be surprised if any role or position is already lined up.
"But I would not rule out an appointment eventually. It always seemed to me that the Prime Minister would one day be an extremely strong candidate for the World Health Organization, as would Sir Ashley Bloomfield and Minister Ayesha Verrall.
"Many of these jobs, particularly the big ones, require sophisticated campaigns. Landing them requires considerable effort and they are usually contested by several credible candidates. Plus the UN has geographic rotation as part of the mix."
That's the case for the World Food Programme role. It's not so much rotated, as dominated by the United States, because that country provides the bulk of its funding.
According to specialist media outlet Devex, the Biden administration has recommended that Cindy McCain replace David Beasley. McCain, who was married to the late Republican senator and presidential candidate John McCain, is the US ambassador to United Nations agencies for food and agriculture in Rome.
New Zealanders tend to assume that as a small country, their candidates will have the backing of other small countries in contests for big international roles – but we may somewhat sanctimoniously over-estimate our own appeal.
"Much of the commentary in New Zealand about the Prime Minister’s UN appeal is way over-stated and viewed from a Western perspective," Finny argues.
"She is not necessarily as well-liked in some parts of Asia, Latin America, Middle East and Africa as she is in Europe. There are some positions that are appointed, but even with these, the major donors often have a big say, and like to use them for their own people. UNICEF and at least one other are permanently reserved for people appointed by the US administration."
Finny says one option could be for Ardern to seek the ambassadorial posting to Washington DC, like Jim Bolger, Mike Moore and Kevin Rudd did, as a grounding for a step onto a bigger stage.
And he has one piece of advice: "I hope Jacinda takes some time off this year to focus on herself. Campaigns for UN roles are extremely stressful as are the roles themselves. Just ask Helen Clark."
Certainly, it seems Clark has barely stopped to take breath since leaving Parliament and winning the role of Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (2009-17). When she emails Newsroom, she's boarding a train from Davos.
The stress that worries her is closer to home.
"The pressures on Prime Ministers are always great, but in this era of social media, clickbait, and 24/7 media cycles, Jacinda has faced a level of hatred and vitriol which in my experience is unprecedented in our country," she says.
"Our society could now usefully reflect on whether it wants to continue to tolerate the excessive polarisation which is making politics an increasingly unattractive calling."
