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Wales Online
Wales Online
Politics
Martin Shipton

Where is the money coming from to fund the Welsh Conservatives' Senedd election promises?

Traditionally, right-wing parties have accused their opponents of producing spendthrift election manifestos that represent uncosted wishlists.

“Where’s the money coming from?” has been the habitual challenge to those on the left whenever they publish a new programme for government.

“The promises may sound great, but without a costed breakdown they simply aren’t credible.”

But at the Senedd election, it’s the Welsh Conservative manifesto that falls into such a category.

It’s 22 pages long, and despite huge spending commitments made in virtually every paragraph, there really is no indication where all the money is coming from.

In election campaigns gone by, the Conservatives were at the forefront of allegations that Labour and Plaid were irresponsible in making promises they could not keep because of a lack of funds.

Welsh Labour’s reaction has been to modify what it offers, while Plaid Cymru has come up with new ways of funding public services through low-interest borrowing - coupled with endorsements of the spending plans by trusted economists.

The Welsh Tory manifesto, however, makes no attempt to explain how its promises will be paid for.

It is, quite simply, a programme for government that exists in a vacuum, without it seems the tiresome inconvenience of having to be resourced.

There is a plan to create 65,000 jobs - or rather an assertion that such a number of jobs will be created.

Apparently 15,000 of them will be “green jobs”, aimed at making Wales the “green energy capital of the world”.

The fact is we’ve a long way to go to catch up with Scotland, let alone the real world leaders in green energy like Denmark. But if your starting point is British exceptionalism, maybe the achievements of other European countries can be disregarded.

In any case, we can presume the green jobs will not be coming from onshore wind turbines: Conservative politicians and activists have been leading opponents of them in rural Wales.

Reference is made to using tidal power along the Welsh coast as a major element of the green revolution. But wasn’t it the UK Conservative government that killed off the Swansea tidal lagoons project, which was meant to be the first of similar schemes around the Welsh coast.

If the 65,000 jobs continue the pattern of earlier employment creation, they would be low-paid and insecure: hardly a sustainable basis on which to build an economic recovery.

The manifesto also talks about rebuilding the Welsh fishing industry - failing to mention that it’s largely been wrecked by Brexit.

Clearly the future of the NHS in Wales is a vital issue. But the Conservative position seems rather confused.

The manifesto talks about the need for a radical shake-up aimed at improving waiting times, promises the building of new hospitals and the availability of new drugs, and advocates greater cross-border cooperation.

Yet it also talks about creating the NHS as an institution separate from the Welsh Government.

One of the difficulties at the moment is surely the lack of political accountability, with Ministers hiding behind the coattails of health boards when tough decisions have to be made.

What is needed is more political accountability, not less.

The NHS takes up the biggest portion by far of the Welsh Government’s budget. It is surely reasonable for it to exercise stewardship over how the money is spent - and, it seems, that is what the Welsh Conservatives would seek to do, with very specific targets relating to the additional number of doctors and nurses to be employed, for example.

But making the NHS a separate body outside government would remove its accountability and allow unelected officials to create even more powerful fiefdoms of their own.

It takes a considerable degree of chutzpah to promise “health worker heroes” the pay they deserve when your party at Westminster has restricted their pay rise to just 1% this year.

The section of the manifesto on schools contains some welcome commitments to Welsh medium education, but it also proposes to scrap the Welsh Baccalaureate, which despite getting mixed reviews has provided imaginative educational experiences for many students.

The section also includes an extraordinary pledge to “prevent the closure of any school that is able to deliver the national curriculum, without the agreement from parents, teachers and governors”.

It is surely never a good idea to give service users a veto over change that could be for the better. Often, larger schools are able to provide a wider range of educational opportunities than small village schools with tiny numbers of pupils. Decisions about which schools to close or amalgamate should stay with democratically elected local authorities.

Freezing council tax and proposing a cut in income tax if the 65,000 job creation target is met are another significant part of the mix, as apparently is the proposal to keep down VAT for tourism businesses until next year, even though the Welsh Government has no locus in VAT.

How would these measures affect the Welsh Government’s budget? We are not told.

Intriguingly, the Conservatives talk about working with the UK Government to deliver the UK Shared Prosperity Fund to communities in Wales - that’s the fund which is meant to replace EU regional aid.

The pledge is intriguing because all the indications so far have been that the UK Government intends to bypass the Welsh Government in spending such money. Does the reference to it in the manifesto suggest that a Tory-led administration in Wales would be back on board and running the fund?

The manifesto says it’s Labour and Plaid that are obsessed with the constitution. But when laws are introduced that challenge the devolution settlement, there’s a major issue that has to be confronted.

All of the spending commitments, piled on page after page, become somewhat dizzying.

One thing is certain: it is difficult to reconcile this recklessly expansionist programme with the party of austerity we have grown to know and not love.

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