Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is going to go in the first half of the first round of the 2021 NFL draft. You can almost bank on that. But where exactly he lands is up for debate.
There are experts that have provided their thoughts, but what do the analytics say? We’ve seen plenty of 2021 NFL mock drafts by guys like Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, and Chad Reuter, all based on opinion.
NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund has taken a different approach, and the results may surprise you. Rather than going by the popular opinion made by many of the narrative-makers, Frelund uses data-driven data to simulate what will happen in the upcoming NFL draft. In case you wonder what goes into all of it, she does explain it, if you are into that sort of thing.
Since you’re here, we’re banking on the fact that you’re wondering where Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields falls in all of this? I mean, it’s a quarterback-driven league now, so he has to be near the top right?
Maybe not. Here’s what Frelund says about the results, and where and who should select the former Heisman finalist based on analytics alone.
NEXT … Where Justin Fields falls according to analytics
Justin Fields – No. 9 overall pick to the Denver Broncos
What Frelund says about Fields and the analytics
“The Broncos have a need at cornerback, but — presuming free agent safety Justin Simmons returns — Fields’ ability to make use of Denver’s pass-catchers gives the Broncos about 0.8 more wins than they would add by selecting the best CB prospect and slotting either incumbent Drew Lock or any of the available free agents in at QB.
PFF notes that 69.9 percent of Fields’ college passing yards came through the air, and my models add that his time to throw took 0.45 seconds less on non-primary reads in his final three college career games than in his first five. Between offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s play design and teaching ability and Fields’ ability to run the ball, the QB will have the chance to learn and adapt to NFL speed quickly.”
NEXT … What we say
Justin Fields – No. 9 overall pick to the Denver Broncos?
What we say
I don’t think there’s any way Fields falls this far down. Remember, analytics have their place, but you can’t build a team solely on numbers and science alone. The NFL is a quarterback-driven league (look up Tom Brady and Tampa Bay), and there is a premium for a difference-maker at the position.
Teams that need a quarterback are going to wheel and deal to get the guy they feel is the best fit before another team jumps the front of the line to do it themselves. That’s why you often see a run on the quarterback position, and with the big arm, athletic ability, and toughness that Fields has shown throughout his college career, he’ll be off the board before this. Don’t be surprised if he’s picked in the first five picks.
To get a look at the rest of the analytics mock draft, visit NFL.com and have a look.
