Bristol Rovers have been tipped for a mid-table finish in League Two, according to statisticians.
FiveThirtyEight's data model predicts Joey Barton's Gas are on course for a 12th-place finish in the fourth tier this season.
Runaway league leaders Forest Green Rovers have been given an 85 per cent chance of promotion, with 89 points their predicted final tally. Northampton Town and Tranmere Rovers are he the sides the statisticians believe will join Forest Green in the automatic promotion places.
Port Vale, Sutton United, Exeter City and Leyton Orient are the likely play-off competitors, while Oldham Athletic and Scunthorpe United are the sides most likely to get relegated as things stand.
Twelfth place would represent an underwhelming season for the Gas, but the data offers causes for optimism. Barton's blues have the second-best attacking rating in the league, behind only Forest Green.
The defence, meanwhile, ranks in the bottom third of the division according to the forecast, confirming the common view that rearguard reinforcements should be a priority for the Gas in the upcoming transfer window.
The ratings are calculated based on analysis of each team's personnel, results and match data, changing fluidly throughout the season.
What the ratings do not account for are the possible changes in options available to Barton after the transfer window, which represents Rovers' chance to fine tune a squad with plenty of potential but some flaws.
Should the Gas address their defensive issues, which have led 33 goals conceded in 21 games and a goal difference of -6, they appear to have attacking firepower capable of lifting them to a higher position in the league.
After the latest round of fixtures, the Gas are rated a 15 per cent chance to make the play-offs, with an eight per cent chance of promotion.
The odds of Rovers being relegated, according to the data, are one per cent.
How League Two is predicted to finish
1. Forest Green Rovers - 89 points
2. Northampton Town - 82 points
3. Tranmere Rovers - 76 points
----------------------------------------------
4. Port Vale - 74 points
5. Sutton United - 71 points
6. Exeter City - 70 points
7. Leyton Orient - 70 points
----------------------------------------------
8. Swindon Town - 70 points
9. Newport County - 69 points
10. Salford City - 67 points
11. Mansfield Town - 66 points
12. Bristol Rovers - 63 points
13. Walsall - 62 points
14. Harrogate Town - 61 points
15. Rochdale - 61 points
16. Bradford City - 59 points
17. Crawley Town - 57 points
18. Colchester United - 55 points
19. Barrow - 52 points
20. Hartlepool - 51 points
21. Carlisle United - 46 points
22. Stevenage - 44 points
----------------------------------------------
23. Oldham Athletic - 43 points
24. Scunthorpe United - 41 points
SIGN UP: For our newsletter to receive more exclusive Bristol Rovers content
.jpg?w=600)
