We're at the point where we're obsessed with the visible manifestations of the campaign right now – the stump speeches, the ads, whether the Bill Ayers attacks are working. But let's step back and consider something that isn't immediately visible, something that might have a big impact on how this race winds down. In a word, money.
Two questions you may not have thought about in the past week: How much money is Obama probably raising right now, and how much are the Republicans raising?
Obama will announce his September totals next week. He raised a record $66m in August. Doesn't it seem safe to say that the September number will be north of that? Maybe $75m? And what about the October figure? He could hit $100m in a single month. Even if that proves high, the guesstimate of another $75m or so, a more conservative projection today, would have seemed mind-blowing a few months ago.
You could tell last week that Obama was swimming in cash when his campaign announced that it had purchased 30-minute blocs of air time during prime time on three different networks. Every indication is that he could practically buy the whole week on a network if he wanted to, but the big shows are starting their new seasons. As much enthusiasm as he's generated, he's still probably no match for Grey's Anatomy.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side…McCain, remember, accepted public financing for the general election, which Obama did not, so McCain gets his money from the federal government. He and his party can, however, raise money that goes technically not to him but to the party. It can't be spent on campaign travel and payroll, but it can be spent on television advertising, mailings and other activities that support the presidential ticket.
I should think they had a strong September – remember, McCain was ahead for the first half of September, until the financial crisis hit. But how must they be doing now? In all likelihood, not nearly as well.
McCain's campaign is now at the point – seven, eight points behind with just three weeks remaining; also, unsure of its message and direction – where the political pros in the party start making choices. They look at the amount of money the party is bringing in. They look at the state of McCain's campaign and start making sober calculations about the chance of his winning.
Then, they size up the races for Senate and the House of Representatives. They start telling themselves things like, "Well, okay, maybe we lose the presidency. But we've got to keep the Democrats from getting 60 senators. We've got to try to hold on in North Carolina, Minnesota and Oregon." And as far as the House of Representatives goes, momentum is still moving in the Democrats' direction. They may pick up 12 seats, which would give them a hefty 61-seat advantage.
Republican operatives want desperately to recapture control of that body. And they know very well that every 10 or so seats you're behind there adds another two or four years to the project. So they have a very strong interest in trying to keep losses there to a minimum.
So, with fewer resources at their disposal than the Obama campaign, the Republicans are going to have to start making choices. My hunch is that McCain has a week to show that he can break through in Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida (65 electoral votes all told). He's slightly behind in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, and somewhat more than slightly behind in Virginia.
If McCain can show by next weekend that he's nudged the needle in these states in his direction, his campaign managers will probably be able to persuade the party's money people to keep the infusions coming.
But if he can't, history shows that they'll start cutting their losses and moving their spending to the protection of congressional incumbents. As you read blind quotes from GOP operatives over the next few days, keep an eye out for hints of this.
