The strictest lockdown-style regulations could be imposed on the North East if the region does not demonstrate that the coronavirus curve is flattening.
Talks are on-going between the Government and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham about imposing Tier 3 restrictions in the Greater Manchester area, which would see Manchester join Liverpool and Lancashire in the toughest lockdown category. The latest figures show eight of the 10 areas with the highest coronavirus rates are all in the North West.
But there are signs the situation in the North East is improving, which could help the region remain in Tier 2, allowing its hospitality and leisure sectors to remain open as we approach the half-term school holiday and Halloween. Under Tier 3, pubs and bars would have to close. Facilities like gyms and leisure centres could stay open, but they may be asked to close as they have in Liverpool.
Last week the North East - including Northumberland, Newcastle, South and North Tyneside, Gateshead, Sunderland and County Durham - avoided being moved into the Tier 3 Very High alert category, twice, after council leaders came together to argue their case. The North East remains in the Tier 2 High Alert category. But it could all change this week - just in time for half-term and Halloween.
When the North East (Northumberland, Newcastle, South and North Tyneside, Gateshead, Sunderland and County Durham) could move to Tier 3 Very High alert
Council leaders won a week-long reprieve which saw the region avoid being moved into Tier 3.
That week-long reprieve was confirmed on Friday, October 16. So, if by Friday, October 23 they can not prove that they have made Tier 2 work and cut coronavirus rates, the region could be placed under the strictest measures and moved to Tier 3.
Matt Hancock confirmed on Monday evening that discussions about moving the North East into Tier 3 will be held later this week.
This is what Tier 3 restrictions would mean for the region.
How likely is it that the North East is moved into Tier 3?
The Government is certainly keen to move the Greater Manchester region into Tier 3, but the situation in the North East is not as serious as in the North West.
The latest Covid-19 figures show rates have dropped in Newcastle, Gateshead, South Tyneside and Northumberland, although they rose in County Durham, Sunderland and North Tyneside.
If the entire region's rates drop before Friday, there is a good chance it could remain in Tier 2, as the councils will be able to prove there is "evidence of a flattening of the curve" and the High Alert category of restrictions is working for the area.
However, the Health Secretary told MPs on Monday evening that the Government plans to hold talks this week about the possibility of upgrading the North East's lockdown into Tier 3.
Mr Hancock said: “Following the successful introduction of measures in Liverpool and Lancashire, talks are continuing this afternoon led by the Communities Secretary with Greater Manchester, and this week further discussions are planned with South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the North East and Teesside."
Speaking last week as the reprieve was confirmed, Gateshead Council leader Martin Gannon said: "The data shows a significant slow down over the past week. Government concede we need a little more time to prove that trend.
"We now need to ask everyone to help us, thank you to those that have won us this reprieve.
"We are staring down the barrel of a gun, it is a battle to prove we can do it, to save the economy and jobs."
But a circuit-breaker lockdown could still be enforced in time for half-term
Labour is calling for a two or three-week 'circuit-breaker' lockdown, which would see all of England closed down in a similar way to the original lockdown in March.
Currently, this looks unlikely in England, as Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said on Sunday that a blanket restriction across the country is not currently being considered.
But Mr Gove did hint that it could happen eventually, as he only said the Government is not considering a circuit-breaker lockdown "at the moment".
The Welsh Government will introduce a “firebreak” lockdown in Wales for two weeks from 6pm on Friday, October 23, First Minister Mark Drakeford has said, so don't rule one out in England.
