Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has been a stellar, yet underrated performer in fantasy football. He enters the 2019 season in a similar boat, but where should he be drafted?
On an efficient Colts offense, Hilton is the most explosive weapon. He’s the target that Frank Reich wants to get involved the most, given his ability to break off a big play at any moment.
>>>When should you draft Marlon Mack?<<<
Current ADP
As of July 29, Hilton is being drafted at 3.01 as the WR10 in 12-team, half-PPR mock drafts, per Fantasy Football Calculator. This means he’s being drafted—on average—with the first pick in the third round as the 10th wide receiver off the board.
The players that are going around Hilton at the same position include Antonio Brown (2.09), Mike Evans (2.10), Keenan Allen (3.03) and Adam Thielen (3.04).
Crunching numbers
- Hilton finished the 2018 season as the WR15 in half-PPR scoring. That was mostly due to injuries in the first half that kept him limited in games.
- However, he exploded during the second half, finishing as the WR2 in half-PPR scoring from Weeks 11–17.
- Over that span, he averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, second only to Julio Jones (17.3).
- Hilton led the entire NFL with 840 receiving yards during that span. He was also sixth in targets during that time (66).
- Hilton played the majority of the second half with two sprains on the same ankle.
>>>When should you draft Andrew Luck?<<<
Concerns
While Hilton is a bonafide stud in fantasy football, there are some concerns. His touchdown upside has always been limited as he’s failed to record more than seven touchdowns in a single season. That’s simply due to his size and Andrew Luck’s preference of tight ends in the red zone. There is also the concern that the Colts will want to run the ball more, thus giving Hilton fewer chances during games.
With so many weapons around Luck, he’s expected to spread the ball around even more so than he did in 2018.
Those concerns are valid, but none of them should keep you from targeting Hilton at his current ADP. He will hold the largest target share on the offense and even if the Colts do run the ball more, Hilton is going to get his work. Reich has made that emphasis throughout the offseason.
Conclusion
Hilton is the perfect third-round target in fantasy football. He’s the ideal WR2 in a lineup or a WR1 if you’ve chosen to go RB-RB in the first two rounds. If he’s on the board in the third round, don’t hesitate. That’s strong value for the top weapon in one of the league’s high-powered offenses.
