"When is the next jobs report?" isn't usually a burning question when the economy is expanding and the unemployment rate is sitting well below 5%.
But a market desperate to discount the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation has made the nonfarm payrolls report a tent-pole event for forecasting monetary policy.
That's especially true now that the labor market has slowed markedly. Revisions reveal the economy generated almost no net jobs growth over the past four months. Only 22,000 jobs were added in August, and job creation has averaged just 27,000 over the past four months.
"Overall, the picture is of a weak labor market, with few sectors adding jobs outside of health care and social assistance," says Kiplinger Staff Economist David Payne.
Market participants are eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates because lower rates equal higher future returns for stocks. The fact that the short-term federal funds rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is still at somewhat restrictive levels is hardly ideal for equities.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the FOMC are trying to walk a fine line between sticky inflation and a softening labor market.
That's why any time we get a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, it hasn't been the best news for equities. Plentiful jobs and rising wages typically help fuel inflation, at least when it's demand-driven.
On the other hand, continued weakness on the jobs front should keep the Fed's rate-cutting cycle intact.
"Fed Chair Powell has warned that there are 'no risk-free paths now,'" writes Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. "Reduce rates to support employment, and the Fed might fuel inflation. Hold (or even raise) rates to fight inflation, and the labor market could deteriorate."
Bottom line: continued weakness in the jobs report could lead to more rate cuts.
When is the next jobs report?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Department of Labor, releases the Employment Situation Summary – also known as the employment report, jobs report or nonfarm payrolls report – at 8:30 am Eastern on the first Friday of every month (unless there's a holiday or other reason to move it to a more convenient time).
The jobs report consists of separate surveys of households and employers estimating the number of people on payrolls, average number of weekly hours worked, average hourly earnings, labor force participation, unemployment rates and other data.
To get a sense of what the BLS is up to, here's an example of some of its methodology: "Each month the program surveys about 119,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 629,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The active sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs."
The jobs report gives us a comprehensive look at the labor market, which is ultimately what fuels consumer spending. Recall that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity, and you can see why the jobs report has always been front and center.
The September employment situation report will be released on Friday, October 3, though this could be delayed by a government shutdown. Economists' consensus forecast is for payrolls to expand by around 39,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
"Hiring is in low gear in 2025, but economic growth is resilient, and the job market does not appear to have weakened in September," writes Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The case for back-to-back cuts is no slam dunk."
For those wondering "when is the next jobs report?," have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the BLS, below.
Reference Month |
Release Date |
Release Time |
|---|---|---|
December |
January 10 |
8:30 am Eastern |
January |
February 7 |
8:30 am Eastern |
February |
March 7 |
8:30 am Eastern |
March |
April 4 |
8:30 am Eastern |
April |
May 2 |
8:30 am Eastern |
May |
June 6 |
8:30 am Eastern |
June |
July 3 |
8:30 am Eastern |
July |
August 1 |
8:30 am Eastern |
August |
September 5 |
8:30 am Eastern |
September |
October 3 |
8:30 am Eastern |
October |
November 7 |
8:30 am Eastern |
November |
December 5 |
8:30 am Eastern |
