Abacuses have been dusted off in light of EFL’s long-awaited announcement on Leeds United’s remaining fixtures and fans are working out when promotion may finally come.
At the outset, we will assume the season is finished from here on out, with all the Championship’s sides playing their remaining nine matches out to a full conclusion.
The Whites will begin at Cardiff City with a noon kick-off a week on Sunday, from there it is Fulham, Luton Town, Blackburn Rovers, Stoke City, Swansea City, Barnsley, Derby County and Charlton Athletic.
How soon could they win promotion? The very earliest, mathematically, they could clinch their place in the Premier League would be after beating Blackburn at Ewood Park on July 4.
The above scenario is assuming all of United’s rivals have the worst possible starts and they have the best possible start.
Ignore West Bromwich Albion, they complicate the maths.
Assume Fulham lose their first four on the bounce.
Assume Brentford beat Fulham in their first match back, but then lose their next three.
Assume Nottingham Forest lose their first four on the bounce.
In short, beating Blackburn would make it 12 points from 12 and stretch a gap of 19 points back to Fulham with only 15 left to play for. It’s possible, but improbable.
Let’s look at other scenarios. Assuming United and Fulham match each other’s results until the end, including a draw in their own meeting, when would the Cottagers run out of road?
If they trade blows and sustain the current seven-point gap, United would clinch promotion at Elland Road, at home to Barnsley, on July 14 when there would be only six points left to play for.
If you want my actual prediction , then I’m going for the Barnsley game. There will be twists and turns along the way, regardless of how impressive the Whites looked before the lockdown.
There are so many unknowns with the fitness of United, their rivals and how they all cope with this hectic schedule in empty, soulless stadiums.
I don’t think the away trips to Cardiff, Blackburn or Swansea should be underestimated, given what they are fighting for in their own grounds.
Neither should Fulham be underestimated and what they may be able to put together if they build up a head of steam, especially if they nick anything at Elland Road.
If the Whites are going to get it done, I’d stick my neck out with the Barnsley game under the lights, or possibly the Swansea game three days earlier.
