The Thai Raksa Chart Party and the Pheu Thai Party may be "too close for comfort" and this week's candidacy registration may have exposed something to that effect.
For many critics, it was no myth that the Thai Raksa Chart os a chip off Pheu Thai's block, given the defections of many Pheu Thai members to the new party.
A popular theory was that the launch of Thai Raksa Chart was to counter the new election system introduced by the constitution which seeks to rein in large parties and boost small- and medium-sized ones.
Political analysts said Pheu Thai, being the largest party in the previous poll, appears to have borne the heaviest brunt, leading to predictions that it will have fewer MPs after the March 24 election.
A tactic was thus conceived by Pheu Thai to turn the crisis into an opportunity. The party figured that since there is strength in numbers, members began leaving Pheu Thai left and right in order to subscribe to Thai Raksa Chart and Puea Chat, a party said to be a vehicle for the red shirts.
Pheu Thai, Thai Raksa Chart, and Puea Chat are sworn allies and ready to huddle together to try and form a government after the election if they possibly can, according to analysts.
Pheu Thai has what Thai Raksa Chart lacks -- experienced former MP candidates who can win in constituencies. But Thai Raksa Chart does not mind that. In fact, it has another mission to accomplish, which is to go after the ballots cast for losing candidates since those votes will be tallied up in the list method and "redeemed" for candidates on party lists.
Puea Chat, meanwhile, is also thought to be targeting the losing votes as well. The analysts said the Pheu Thai-led alliance needs all the help it can get from "sister parties" to up the ante and increase its chances of forming a government at all costs.
Thai Raksa Chart chief strategist Chaturon Chaisang has said his party's breaking away from Pheu Thai was to beat new election rules designed to undermine the chances of large parties winning a majority of House seats.
A political source said it is perfectly legal to turn one's back on one party and defect to another. But the act of collusion is not. The MP candidacy registration, which closed yesterday after a week of hustle and bustle, may have spelt trouble for both Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart.
In Bangkok, where 30 seats are available, Pheu Thai, the former ruling party, fielded candidates in 22 constituencies while Thai Raksa Chart is standing in the remaining eight.
The source said it was rather inconceivable to think that one party would sidestep and let the other compete in many constituencies in the capital.
The source noted that Pheu Thai is believed to have more than 200,000 zealous voters in its pocket in the eight constituencies where the party does not plan to stand in the next election.
The source said such a multitude of votes is enough to hand Pheu Thai three MPs in the new election system.
If the party is willing to throw away three MPs at a time when it is in a tight spot electorally with the military government in power, it might have worked out a plan to hook up with Thai Raksa Chart post-election to balance out the disadvantage.
If Thai Raksa Chart, which is already well-positioned to capitalise on the Pheu Thai support base in the eight constituencies, could appeal to voters looking for fresh faces in a new party and rake in 40,000 votes in each of those constituencies, it would bring in four MPs in the list system. That would be one more MP gained than if Pheu Thai were to stand, according to the source.
At the same time, Mr Chaturon has consistently denied Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart are one and the same or that they have shared election strategies.
However, he admitted the campaign manifestos of the two parties look similar. That is because he had helped formulate Pheu Thai's before he left for Thai Raksa Chart.
Prayut last PPRP man standing
Ahead of yesterday's deadline for political parties to submit their lists of prime ministerial candidates, Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) leader Uttama Savanayana and Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak decided to rule themselves out.
The party at the same time was rolling out the red carpet to welcome Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha as its sole prime ministerial candidate, if he wished to be.
The decision triggered wild speculation, with some saying it was intended to step up pressure on Gen Prayut -- who was quoted as saying he would not mind having two more people joining him on the list -- to say yes to the PPRP's invitation.
The withdrawal of the other two prospective candidates was sudden and unexpected, according to political observers, as the PPRP had announced its selection of three candidates endorsed by the party's board chaired by Mr Uttama late last month.
Shortly after the PPRP's picks were decided, Mr Uttama led the PPRP's co-founders to meet Gen Prayut at Government House to formally approach the regime leader to stand as the party's choice as the next premier.
A few days later, the key PPRP members paid Mr Somkid a visit and handed him the same invitation. Mr Somkid was in Japan when the PPRP resolved to nominate him.
There was some doubt at the time whether Mr Somkid would decline even though he reiterated his support for Gen Prayut to be the party's standard-bearer in the March 24 polls.
Out of the blue, Mr Uttama and Mr Somkid have decided to bow out, reasoning it would be in the party's best interests if Gen Prayut were to be the party's sole candidate.
Before they opted out, the PPRP's MP candidates and supporters were said to be upbeat about the election campaign.
The three-candidate formula was thought to be a recipe for success.
No matter who is nominated for parliament to decide upon, any of the three were seen as being up to the job. All were in the military government and could carry on its projects and policies seamlessly.
While the 2017 charter allows each political party to submit up to three candidates, some parties proposed just one name for the sake of clarity.
The Democrat Party is rooting for its leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, even though there was speculation that former leader Chuan Leekpai could be nominated. The Future Forward Party (FFP) has nominated its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
The only major party with three candidates is Pheu Thai, which is backing Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, Chadchart Sittipunt and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
Gen Prayut has seen his popularity rise in recent weeks -- especially among the elderly -- apparently thanks to the government's decision to provide a living allowance for the elderly, which is believed to have won the hearts of many people from low-income families.
Wirat brings win for Thaworn
Adispute within the Democrat Party over who should stand as a candidate in Songkhla's Constituency 3 covering Hat Yai district was finally resolved after the party's executive board decided to field Wirat Kalayasiri, the party's legal expert, as a candidate.
Wirat: 'Fit enough' to campaign
Mr Wirat, who has formerly served as an MP in the constituency several times in the past, is known to belong to a faction of Democrat politicians led by Songkhla veteran politician Thaworn Senniam who still enjoys close ties with Suthep Thaugsuban, former Democrat secretary-general and former leader of the now-defunct People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
The PDRC spearheaded the mass anti-government demonstrations against the Pheu Thai-led administration in late 2013 that culminated in the May 2014 military coup. Mr Suthep is currently a co-founder of the Action Coalition for Thailand Party.
Previously, the Democrat executive board wanted Prai Pattano, the Hat Yai mayor, to stand as a candidate in the constituency in place of Mr Wirat who underwent surgery to treat a herniated disc early last month.
The executive board received advice from doctors that Mr Wirat might not be in the best of health to go election campaigning so the board decided that he needed time to recover, a party source said, adding that the board agreed to field him as a party-list candidate instead.
The executive board asked Mr Prai to resign as Hat Yai mayor to run as the candidate, but Mr Prai later withdrew, prompting Democrat deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat to approach Pol Lt Gen Sakhon Thongmuni, a former head of the Tourist Police Bureau, to run as a candidate.
But Mr Wirat's insistence that he is now fit enough to stand as a constituency candidate finally convinced the party executive board to bow to his wishes, the source said. Mr Wirat's return to reclaim his candidacy in the constituency was a victory for Mr Thaworn's faction, according to political observers.
Several members of the faction were not chosen as candidates to stand in the constituency system and ended up being placed on the party-list.
