The wheat complex is falling on Tuesday as USDA found a few more bushels in the production number this morning. CBT soft red wheat futures are down 11 to 12 ¼ cents at midday. KC HRW futures are slipping 11 to 12 ¼ cents as well. MPLS spring wheat futures are firmer, with slightly fewer bushels discovered, as contracts are 4 to 5 cents lower.
The USDA Small Grains Summary from this morning showed all wheat production tallied at 1.984 bbu, 63 mbu larger compared to the average trade guess at 1.921 bbu and 57 mbu above the August Crop Production report number. Winter wheat production was pegged at 1.402 bbu, 50 mbu larger than expected, with HRW at 804 mbu, SRW at 353 mbu, and white winter at 244 mbu. Spring wheat production was pegged at 497 mbu, with durum at 86 mbu.
USDA’s Grain Stocks report indicated wheat stocks at 2.12 bbu as of September 1. That was 66 mbu above Bloomberg’s average survey of analysts at 2.054 bbu and 128 mbu larger than the same date in 2024.
The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed 34% of the US winter wheat crop planted, 2 points behind normal. Emergence was 13%, 1 point ahead of average.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the 2025/26 Argentine wheat production a 22 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous estimate. The European Commission estimates the EU wheat exports since July 1 at 4.37 MMT, below the 6.36 MMT from the same time last year.
Dec 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.07 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents,
Mar 26 CBOT Wheat is at $5.26, down 11 3/4 cents,
Dec 25 KCBT Wheat is at $4.96, down 12 1/4 cents,
Mar 26 KCBT Wheat is at $5.17 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents,
Dec 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.64 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,
Mar 26 MGEX Wheat is at $5.84 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,
