The New Orleans Saints made plans to host defensive tackle Ed Oliver in New Orleans as one of their 30 predraft visits, per Jane Slater of NFL Network. Oliver, who starred for the Houston Cougars, is one of the best players in the 2019 NFL Draft. He appeared in 32 games and logged 192 tackles (122 solo, 53 for loss of yards) as well as 13.5 sacks and 11 pass breakups. He’s been wildly productive and has tremendous game tape. After Oliver verified his athleticism at Houston’s pro day, there’s little question that he’s one of the slam-dunk prospects in this year’s draft.
But he shouldn’t hold much interest for the Saints. They won’t pick until 62 overall, hilariously far from Oliver’s range (he’s expected to be a top-10 pick). Any trade the Saints work out to get up to the top of the draft and add Oliver would be unprecedented.
Except, well, there is some precedent. Teams make franchise-changing trades to get quarterbacks all the time. Look at the New York Jets trading a first round pick and three picks in the second round to get Sam Darnold. The Philadelphia Eagles gave up a pick in the first, second, and third rounds to climb the ladder and get Carson Wentz. But each of those teams had first rounders to offer in the current year. The Saints do not.
And sure, quarterbacks are valued differently than other positions. So maybe the landmark Julio Jones trade is a better reference model. The Atlanta Falcons gave up five picks in that deal: two picks in the first round, one in the second round, and two in the fourth round. Jones and Oliver are similar prospects in the sense that they boast one-of-a-kind athleticism and elite college production. Would another team pass on the opportunity for that kind of haul?
Let’s be clear: the Saints should not go down this road. They’re short-handed on draft assets as it is, and going for broke like this would threaten their depth at other positions. Sure, Oliver would make the team better (he’d immediately step into the starting lineup in Sheldon Rankins’ absence), but the cost is simply too great. The Saints can’t hamstring themselves for multiple draft cycles like this.
But it’s fun to speculate. Here’s two packages that could get the deal done.
Option A: Trade all of the draft picks
New York Giants get:
- 2019 second round pick (62 overall)
- 2020 first round pick (TBD)
- 2020 second round pick (TBD)
- 2021 first round pick (TBD)
- 2021 fourth round pick (conditional, can become third)
New Orleans Saints get:
- 2019 first round pick (6 overall)
This proposal is modeled off of the Julio Jones trade and the Jets’ trade to get Darnold. Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has already amassed draft capital by trading away cornerstone players like Odell Beckham Jr. That means he has one first round pick to work with even if he trades out of the earlier spot. So in his eyes, if he accepts this move, the Giants can still add an impact player in the first round while collecting more assets to use down the road — potentially in moving up, themselves, to get his handpicked successor to Manning.
From the Saints’ perspective, they rationalize this by adding a generational talent to their already-strong defensive line. Oliver can fill in for Rankins until he’s healthy and team up with him once David Onyemata’s contract expires after this year. If they believe that their future franchise quarterback is already on the roster in Teddy Bridgewater, and that they can keep the rest of their young core together (guys like Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Marshon Lattimore), Oliver can help lead the way towards life after Drew Brees. They’re betting big on more than just Oliver’s talents here, but the success Julio Jones has brought Atlanta would be encouraging.
Then again, there’s another path to moving up to get Oliver. And it doesn’t involve the Saints giving up any of their draft picks. But they would have to lose a player who is arguably more valuable.
Option B: Trade one of the best players
Buffalo Bills get:
- WR Michael Thomas
New Orleans Saints get:
- 2019 first round pick (9 overall)
- 2019 third round pick (74 overall)
- 2020 first round pick (TBD)
So, this would be tough to swallow, right? The Saints don’t lose all of their future picks, but they open a gaping hole in the offense. They’ve never committed an outlandish share of their salary cap to receiving talent, with even Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston doing little to push the boundaries of what pass-catchers earned. Thomas will want more than $20 million per year, and he’s earned that. But will the Saints pay him?
If not, the Bills would be happy to. They added a few role players this offseason (signing receivers Cole Beasley and John Brown) but they’ll need more than that to help second-year quarterback Josh Allen. Thomas is a repeat Pro Bowler, and an All-Pro. He can lead the charge in Buffalo, for a team that won’t hesitate to match whatever contract demands he’s drawn up.
If Amari Cooper can be moved for a first rounder, Thomas can command two. Like Cooper, he’s been to multiple Pro Bowls and is still on his rookie contract, but he’s been much more consistently productive. Other top receivers like Antonio Brown (who the Bills infamously tried, and failed, to acquire) and Odell Beckham Jr already received big paydays, but they did their part to set the trade market for Thomas. Brown was traded for third and fifth round picks, Beckham for picks in the first and third rounds, and a player (safety Jabrill Peppers).
So the question isn’t whether this would be a fair trade. You have to ask: where do the Saints go from there? Will Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara catch 200 passes? Are the Saints really going to ask a rookie or two to step in and learn on the job with Tre’Quan Smith and Keith Kirkwood, and elder statesman Ted Ginn Jr.? Does that really put Brees in the best position to win another Super Bowl?
Again, there’s just too many questions with ugly answers surrounding both of these proposals. Even if Oliver turns out to be a great player, the Saints’ interest in his NFL prospects shouldn’t be seen as more than innocent curiosity.
