It's a big question ahead of every Major, so players and pundits alike have been discussing what will the winning score be at the PGA Championship?
Aronimink near Philadelphia will stage the second men's Major of the year and the first at the Donald Ross layout in 64 years.
Rory McIlroy and others have said that the course could be easily overpowered by the big hitters but the testing, sloping greens will be the big defense.
But how will that play out in terms of a winning score?
"The greens are the main focus this week, and I think getting yourself in the right sections of the greens, making sure you leave yourself below the hole for the most part. That's the key this week," said McIlroy.
Scottie Scheffler says there's a huge difference in a wet Aronimink and a dry and firm one - with the PGA Championship weather forecast suggesting it could be a bit damp to start with but dry out heading into the weekend.
The PGA of America do have a manner of control in terms of pin placements and whether they water the greens or not - but most believe the field will be good enough to post a relatively low score at the par-70 layout.
Keegan Bradley won on -20 at the 2018 BMW Championship held at Aronimink, but we're expecting conditions to be tougher this week.
Still, around the -16 mark has been touted by those on the ground in Pennsylvania as a possible winning score, while Ben Griffin predicted it will be tougher with -12 his pick.
Ben Griffin predicts -12 winning score this week. Says it should crisp up and the shots into the greens are gonna make players have to really think.Dying to know what “random guys” he’s referring to here. Shots fired ! pic.twitter.com/nk3tbL4ANIMay 12, 2026
Winning scores in recent years have fluctuated, with Keegan Bradley pointing out that the PGA of America has no agenda in terms of what score it wants to win the Wanamaker Trophy.
Weather can play a part given the new date in May for the PGA Championship - with Xander Schauffele winning a birdiefest at a soggy Valhalla a couple of years ago.
Southern Hills in 2022 was the toughest of the last decade in relation to par as Justin Thomas won a play-off after finishing on five under, while Phil Mickelson took the most strokes to win of the last 10 champions with 282 needed to win at Kiawah Island on six under.
Five of the last 10 have been single figures under par - and while Scheffler was -11 last year he was five shots clear of the field.
And while around that 10 under mark may be the aim, the PGA of America is seemingly more bothered about making the event a spectacle rather than worrying about the winning score.
What do you think the winning score will be in the 2026 PGA Championship? Have you say by joining the conversation below...
PGA Championship winning scores
Year/Venue |
Winner |
Winner |
Score |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 |
Quail Hollow |
Scottie Scheffler |
-11 (273) |
2024 |
Valhalla |
Xander Schauffele |
-21 (263) |
2023 |
Oak Hill |
Brooks Koepka |
-9 (271) |
2022 |
Southern Hills |
Justin Thomas |
-5 (275) |
2021 |
Kiawah Island |
Phil Mickelson |
-6 (282) |
2020 |
Harding Park |
Collin Morikawa |
-13 (267) |
2019 |
Bethpage Black |
Brooks Koepka |
-8 (272) |
2018 |
Bellerive CC |
Brooks Koepka |
-16 (264) |
2017 |
Quail Hollow |
Justin Thomas |
-8 (276) |
2016 |
Baltusrol |
Jimmy Walker |
-14 (266) |
