Succeeding in fantasy football is all about stats, trends and knowing how to analyze that information and using it to your advantage. While the NFL is a week-to-week league, which makes it difficult to predict anything with certainty (hello, Aidan O’Connell’s 26 fantasy points against the Chargers), here’s five things I learned from Week 15 that I’ll be using when I set my fantasy lineups for fantasy’s Week 16.
Injuries are going to determine fantasy champions
I know we say this all the time, but this season it seems more prominent … injuries are really having a negative effect on fantasy leagues. In recent weeks, managers have been forced to sit stars such as Justin Herbert, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Tank Dell and Nico Collins (and I probably missed a few). Plus, other studs like Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman Jr. were injured this week. It sucks, it’s unfair and it’s frustrating, but injuries are part of the NFL and fantasy football. That won’t ease the pain of managers who built title contenders who are likely going home for the season due to lost superstars.
‘Backup’ quarterbacks are startable assets
Last week, we saw fantasy (or NFL) backups like Desmond Ridder, Jake Browning, Bailey Zappe, Mitchell Trubisky, Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield and Zach Wlson score 19-plus fantasy points. Had to be an outlier, right? Nope. It happened again this week, as Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew, Derek Carr, Browning, Easton Stick and Nick Mullens all scored more than 17 points. All of those passers also finished with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes. I know it’s really hard to even think to start these quarterbacks during the fantasy postseason, but maybe it shouldn’t be?
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Derrick Henry is no longer the ‘King’
Man, was I excited to start Derrick Henry this week. After all, he’s killed the Texans in his career. Well, Henry killed us, his fantasy managers, with a nine-yard effort. It’s the first time in his career he's been held under 10 rushing yards in a game where he's carried the ball more than six times. His 0.56 yards per rush was also a career worst. Henry, who finished with five points, sent a lot of managers home. If Henry’s stinker wasn’t bad enough, other star runners like Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, De’Von Achane and Breece Hall all scored single-digit fantasy points. That leads me to the next of our lessons learned…
The fantasy gods put coal in our stockings
As if it were bad enough that we lost several high-end wide receivers to injuries and had a number of big-name backs put up stinkers, the “process” betrayed us again. We continued to see lesser quarterbacks shine while some big names struggled (see above), and players with great matchups didn’t meet expectations. Robinson had a cakewalk game in Carolina, and he scored 0.4 points. The same goes for Najee Harris (1.3) against the Colts. The stinkers weren’t limited to running backs, either, as DeAndre Hopkins (4.1), Garrett Wilson (5.9), Brandon Aiyuk (6.7), Stefon Diggs (8.8) and Puka Nacua (10.3) were all disappointments. That leads me to my final lesson learned, and it comes at the ever frustrating tight end position.
Dalton Kincaid is no longer a fantasy option
Kincaid was an absolute stud when Dawson Knox went on injured reserve, posting double digits in five straight games, including four with more than 15 points. But since Knox has returned, Kincaid has disappeared. In the last two games, he’s scored a combined 7.1 points. What’s more, he was held to zero points on just two targets in a win over the Cowboys. Kincaid has also seen his fantasy totals drop in each of his last five games. I love the kid’s talent, but it’s hard to ignore that he’s simply not as good when Knox is active. Unless you’re desperate, the rookie is no longer a must start.
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