Before the debate, most of our focus group expected David Cameron to win narrowly “because he’s best at debates”. Those favouring Ed Miliband did so because he is “compassionate”, while Nigel Farage was predicted to be the winner by those looking for something different.
Cameron’s opening performance did not disappoint: he is still seen as the frontrunner. “Have a feeling Cameron has this in the bag to be honest,” said one. Clegg’s remarks were met with cynicism. In Ealing, our focus group laughed sarcastically when he spoke.
Miliband did not make much of an impression: “Ed Miliband struggles to persuade me,” said one. But Farage hits the right note for several on immigration and even those who disagree commented on his strong presentation.
Getting into the specific questions, the dynamic began to change. Most of our panellists did not engage much with the policy detail and focused much more on performances. Our voters began to show their frustration at “tit for tat” politics “Are they all talking about the same country? Has the debt doubled or halved?” and were critical of “stock answers”. Increasingly, voters formed a view that Cameron and Miliband were cancelling each other out – just blaming each other rather than setting out their stall.
“Same old stuff,” was one view. Both seemed over rehearsed and Cameron in particular lacked passion. Miliband fared a little better on the NHS question.
By contrast, the smaller parties were more able to set out a distinctive positioning. Natalie Bennett surprised voters with her common sense and Leanne Wood also impressed, justifiying her seat round the table with her clarity. One Thanet voter said: “I want to vote Plaid.”
Similarly, panellists across the five constituencies were surprised and reassured by Nicola Sturgeon’s policies which spoke to fairness across the country, not just in Scotland.
Farage preached to his choir and polarised views. Those who don’t agree on immigration thought him “farcical” but for those that do, he spoke sense. His housing statistic (“We need to build a home every seven minutes to provide enough homes for immigrants”) was the standout statistic.
There was not a clear overall winner for our panel. In the end Cameron did not fulfil his predicted promise, and was narrowly trumped by Miliband who showed more conviction. However, it was the smaller parties who dominated the discussion online and in the focus groups.
Most of our panel now say they are even more undecided as their options have widened while the two main parties have become less differentiated in their minds.
