South Carolina football will be the massive home underdog against rival Clemson this Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium, as the Tigers pursue yet another College Football Playoff berth and the Gamecocks look to finish a disappointing season on a high note after missing a bowl game.
ESPN's Power Football Index gives Clemson a 92.4% chance of winning, while FiveThirtyEight predicts CU has a 90% chance.
With the gambling spread reaching a four-score margin against USC, The State spoke with longtime gambling industry reporter David Purdum, of ESPN Chalk, to get his thoughts on the betting side of USC-CU.
David Purdum: The consensus opener was 25. It has ticked up, right now the consensus line is 27. That would make it the largest spread in this series at least since 1995. So it's pretty big now. Last year's was 26, 2016 was 26, so it's close, but at 27, if it were to close at 27 or higher, it would be the largest point spread in the South Carolina-Clemson series since at least 1995, and I say at least because that's as far back as the database I'm looking at goes.
TS: Clemson is obviously very highly ranked. How are the Tigers against the spread, seeing as they've often been heavy favorites?
DP: So Clemson is 8-3 against the spread this year, obviously pretty darn good, probably one of the better records up there. They've had huge numbers and been able to cover them. Something that was interesting to me early in the season that I looked at was Dabo's teams have been excellent against the spread in the first half, so they get out to these big leads and then close them out in the second half. So, yeah, at 8-3, Clemson is one of the best in the nation at covering the number, despite all the hype around them.
TS: For South Carolina, the potential absence of senior wide receiver Bryan Edwards could have a serious impact on the Gamecock offense. But does it have any effect on the gambling spread?
DP: Very rarely will a non-quarterback position impact the lines significantly. In this case I would not think it had any impact on the points spread. It has ticked up over the few days since it opened up, but I don't think that's any got (anything to do with it) if it's not the quarterback or a high profile. I can't even think of one right now if it's not the quarterback and especially in college, it's just not going to impact the points spread.
TS: How have sportsbooks and oddsmakers adjusted their view of this game from where they initially had it over the summer?
DP: The first line that they put in Games of the Year over the summer, was Clemson -23.5 in mid-July. So now it's going up from 23.5 to 27, so it's gone up 3.5 points, and that reflects Bentley being gone for sure, and just overall where Clemson has gone and how South Carolina's season has kind of derailed.
