Usually I can use this space to highlight a few questions the committee can answer with its rankings. We can use them to determine how the committee judges SOS, what it values, etc. Last week, for example, I pointed out that what the committee seems to value most this year is whether a team blows bad teams out or not. And, certainly, it will be important to see if that trend stands.
As always, I am sure that we’ll have plenty to glean from the committee’s rankings. However, the odd trajectory of this season means that we won’t be able to look forward to anything before we see the rankings.
How does the committee value real quality wins? Well, other than LSU and Ohio State, no team has more than one top quality win. Teams like Penn State, Georgia, and Michigan have two good wins, but no one has a real collection there.
As I pointed out in CFP Implications this week, there are 17 teams that have basically locked themselves into the top positions this year. Those 17 will be the committee’s top 17 as well. Splitting hairs among those 17, though, is exactly that–splitting hairs. Will Iowa and Auburn be at the bottom due to their three losses? Probably, though maybe Auburn can sneak ahead of the Wisconsin-Michigan-Notre Dame trio.
Among those 17 teams, there are plenty of reasonable things for the committee to do. And we will certainly learn something from the rankings, and–more importantly this week than in previous weeks–how Rob Mullens explains the rankings. Oklahoma’s placement will teach us a lot, as will Minnesota’s and Penn State’s. But I can’t particularly warn you what to look for, because none of the committee’s choices are particularly binary.
This week, it’s more important to listen. The committee has constantly kept to head-to-head results this year. Will that remain true with Minnesota and Penn State? Will the Gophers stay ahead of Penn State by not falling at all–or will Penn State be forced to drop so as to remain behind Minnesota? Then again, with the emphasis this committee places on dominating games, maybe Penn State will fall a spot or two anyway for struggling against Indiana.
Next … The bottom
Positions 18-25
The choices the committee makes at the bottom of the rankings will teach us far more than any choices at the top. Does the committee respect the three-loss ACC teams–Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Pitt? (That decision, by the way, has major implications as to who will play in the Orange Bowl.) Does the committee still respect the middle of the Big 12, and could it rank four-loss Iowa State and/or Texas? Maybe SMU will move back into the rankings after falling out last week due to a close win over ECU.
More than anyone, though, the Pac 12 wants to see what the committee will do. Both Washington and USC have a chance to be ranked if they can each finish at 8-4. If one of those teams can show up in the rankings this week, it would be a great sign for the conference. Oregon and Utah appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Pac 12 Championship Game with 11-1 records. If they have a ranked win or two before that, it can do a lot for the conference’s perception.
The last team to look for at the back of the rankings is San Diego State. It’s hard to imagine any conference but the AAC getting the Cotton Bowl bid unless we see some major collapses by teams in that conference, but if the Mountain West can have two ranked teams facing off in its conference championship game, then there’s at least a potential conversation here.
