There will be no exit poll, because the broadcasters could not be confident of getting an accurate enough result, with no recent referendum with which to compare today’s vote. But there will be a YouGov poll published when the polls close at 10pm.
This will be a survey of YouGov’s online panel, asking them how they have voted. A similar “on the day” YouGov poll for the Scottish referendum two years ago put the No vote at 54 per cent, one point out from the final result, 55 per cent.
There will be a smaller panel survey by market research company TNS, also published at 10pm, of just 200 online voters, which is designed to find out why people might have changed their minds on the day, rather than to make a prediction.
