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Wales Online
Wales Online
Politics
Will Hayward

What the Senedd would look like if the election was truly proportional

Labour has won a resounding victory in the Welsh Parliament election.

For the next term there are only going to be four parties represented in the Senedd after the Lib Dems managed to scrape a seat in the regional lists. You can read the full results here.

However, if Wales had a truly proportional electoral system the make up of the Senedd would be quite different.

Though the Senedd is more proportional than Westminster, it still doesn't exactly reflect the way people in Wales voted because of the electoral system.

The graphic below shows you what the Senedd looks like now. However if you click on the small tabs it would show you what it would have been like if it was truly proportional based on the constituency vote and regional vote:

The reason why some of the tabs don't have a full 60 seats is because the final votes were split along lots of smaller parties and independents so a full amount of seats couldn't be allocated. The seats are calculated by applying the percentage of the vote to 60 and then rounding to the nearest whole number.

What was the actual result?

Labour - 30

Conservative - 16

Plaid Cymru - 13

Liberal Democrat - 1

If it was based just on the constituency vote

If it was based on how people voted in their constituencies then Labour would lose six seats with the Tories and Plaid both losing one each.

The Lib Dems would gain two with the Greens, Abolish and Reform all getting one seat.

  • Labour 24
  • Conservative 15
  • Plaid Cymru 12
  • Liberal Democrat 3
  • Green 1
  • Abolish 1
  • Reform 1

If it were based on the regional vote

If we look at the regional vote percentage even more parties win seats with UKIP and Propel both getting a seat. In this vote the Greens and Abolish both end up with two seats.

This reflects how people tend to vote for the person they think has a chance to win in the constituencies but are more likely to choose a party they would like represented in the Senedd when they come to vote in the regional list.

  • Labour 22
  • Conservative 15
  • Plaid Cymru 12
  • Liberal Democrat 3
  • Green 2
  • Abolish 2
  • Reform 1
  • UKIP 1
  • Propel 1
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