Byelection results should not be overinterpreted. After all, with their inevitable focus on single issues and low turnouts, these mid-term votes regularly throw up unusual outcomes that do not shed light on what might happen in a general election.
Nevertheless, the reasons that voters use them to stick two fingers up at a sitting government can be telling, and ought to be listened to.
Zac Goldsmith may have been standing as an independent but the London-shaped V-sign that ousted a popular local MP from parliament to be replaced by a Liberal Democrat was not only aimed at his personal support for Brexit.
Instead, it appeared to be a gesture at Theresa May’s Conservatives as well.
After all, residents in Richmond and north Kingston weren’t just put out by the fact that the country voted to leave the EU (although there is unquestionably anguish about the result in this part of London) but at what has unfolded since the decision.
To many, May’s repeated mantra of “Brexit means Brexit”, with red lines on immigration and the European court of justice, feels aimed at the 52% who voted to leave the EU.
The Lib Dems tapped into a perceived lack of nuance from ministers over the idea that the vote was actually quite tight.
The Tories will dismiss this result because Goldsmith was an independent without their support, fighting in what was, for decades, a Lib Dem seat. They will argue that this fiercely pro-European and prosperous suburb is no indicator of a wider pattern across the country.
But they would be wise to at least take note of what the Lib Dems, whose national vote collapsed just 18 months ago, achieved on these London streets.
Sarah Olney talked about meeting voters on the doorstep who had only ever voted Conservative and who said they would, for the first time, opt for her party because of anger at the government’s economic response to Brexit.
So Richmond has shown that Tory remainers are prepared to peel away, in large enough numbers to overturn a 23,000 majority.
How significant is that beyond south-west London? The psephologist John Curtice says the result shows that there is something out there to be exploited: the unease of remain supporters about the direction of travel of this Tory government.
The extent to which the Lib Dems can build on this victory depends on whether Richmond was more about a snub of Goldsmith or of May.
Curtice points out that if it is the former, then the number of seats that backed remain in the face of a Tory outer, and where the Lib Dems are still a force, are seriously limited. Lewes, in East Sussex, is the most obvious other example.
If this was a wider outcry at Tory policy, then a significant number of extra constituencies start to sound an alarm, he warns.
But Curtice points out that the Lib Dems, with so little national support overall, are not the best placed party to exploit this particular flash of anger.
“Inevitably it will become much more serious for Theresa May if voters were to use the Labour party as the vehicle with which to punish the government [over Brexit],” he said.
That seems unlikely at present. After all, Labour is in flux over how to respond to a Brexit vote that appeared to be strongest in many of its heartlands. It is also torn over the issue of immigration, between a leadership that wants to “hold its nerve” and those constituency MPs who are determined to sound tough.
Moreover, Richmond is bad news for Labour because it underlines that while the party battles with the Ukip march to the right, it could also face a threat from elsewhere. Curtice points out that Labour secured more support in 2015 from socially liberal, pro-EU voters than from any other group.
He suggests that the party back May’s call for economic access and immigration controls for now, but then change tack if she fails to come back with a solid enough offer.
To be in a position to do that Labour needs to heal its deep wounds and start sounding like a party of government as soon as possible.
Many are sceptical as to whether that is realistic.
As one adviser to David Cameron points out, May does risk losing votes from liberal remainers who were comfortable voting for the former prime minister. “But she’s gained a lot of Ukip voters,” he adds, arguing that May knows that a solid pitch to working-class, red Tories could more than make up for any shortfall if Jeremy Corbyn continues to trail in the polls.
