Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Independent UK
The Independent UK
James Moore

What the polls said, what the bookies said, and what happened

Photograph: Rex
W

hen it comes to this year’s elections in the US, the polling industry served up what’s best described as a double fault. After predicting a close win for Hillary Clinton in 2016 when Donald Trump took the White House, they suggested Joe Biden would comfortably dethrone the incumbent in 2020.

Poll trackers consistently put Biden’s nationwide lead at about eight points, the biggest a candidate for the Oval Office has enjoyed since 1996 when Bill Clinton cruised to a second term. The final batch of pre-election surveys showed the Democratic Party leading the race for the presidency by between seven and 12 points, albeit with two notable exceptions.

An Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll had Biden just 2.8 points ahead, which now looks prescient. Rasmussen, meanwhile, put the lead at just a single percentage point.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.