The British & Irish Lions move on to Rotorua, hoping the Bay of Plenty lives up to its name after average returns so far in New Zealand. Tuesday’s defeat to the Highlanders deflated rather than punctured the belief generated by the success over the Crusaders in Christchurch, but only victory will do against New Zealand Maori on Saturday when the tourists will field what will be very close to their side in the first Test.
Four matches into the trip, every player in the squad now appreciates that a tour to New Zealand is unlike any other. In South Africa and Australia by now, the Lions would have enjoyed a few blow-outs, but in the land of the World Cup holders every point has to be earned in the face of relentless pressure and opportunism.
As the Lions discovered in Dunedin, even a nine-point second-half lead against a team missing nine players is not secure. At the point when elsewhere they would be opening out, there was no let-up from the Highlanders. A knock-on from a restart and a couple of penalties gave the hosts the position to score their second try and ensure another tense finish.
In his head coach’s report on the Lions 1993 tour to New Zealand and a 2-1 series loss, Ian McGeechan noted: “New Zealand remains the ultimate challenge for a tourist… it is the physical intensity that has to be mastered. The New Zealand environment is intimidating simply because, from waking up in the morning and talking to waiters and waitresses, the key note is rugby. Some players found this almost too intrusive, but others found it challenging and their progress during the tour was dramatic.”
This is the point in the tour when the squad becomes in danger of splitting. The team to face the Maori will offer more than a hint to most of those who are left out that they will not be starting the first Test and those who take the field against the Chiefs in Hamilton next Tuesday will know their chances are little better than negligible.
How disappointment is managed will be one of the defining points of the tour. Another of McGeechan’s recommendations 24 years ago was that the squad should contain a strong character who, if left out of the Test side, could captain the dirt-trackers. The omission of the selfless Chris Robshaw, who failed to make the squad and was then overlooked when Billy Vunipola withdrew through injury, makes the task that bit harder, with the Chiefs followed by the Hurricanes in the final midweek match.
A feature of Warren Gatland’s coaching career has been his acuity as a selector and he has a number of big decisions to make, not least in midfield and the back row. A trend of the tour so far has been the failure of the Lions to take opportunities: even though they scored three tries against the Highlanders, they blew at least as many more, although Tommy Seymour can only have been a fleck of paint away from grounding the ball on part of the line.
Gatland’s instinct long before he arrived in New Zealand was that there was no room for both Owen Farrell and Jonathan Sexton in the back division, not least because of his preference for a ball-carrier at 12. He is mocked for that in New Zealand, as if Ma’a Nonu has been airbrushed from history. Nonu had power but developed, after starting as a 13, a deft side to his game, something Wales did not trouble themselves with over Jamie Roberts.
Farrell looks the Lions’ best option at 10 and 12, quick to make up his mind and resolute in defence. Playing Sexton at outside-half would mean three out of Jonathan Davies, Robbie Henshaw, Jonathan Joseph and Ben Te’o missing out, although it would allow a 6-2 split on the bench in favour of the forwards, and it will depend on how Gatland sees the likeliest way of winning the first Test.
The victory over the Crusaders was a defensive triumph, not just for the line speed that congested the midfield and made off-loads hazardous, but the kick-chasing that cut down the options for the catcher. The field narrowed for the home side, who lacked an alternative plan as they slipped beneath the waves of tacklers.
The Highlanders’ response was to use the chip kick as a pass into space, although it cost them a try, or bring in runners from deep. The All Blacks will have their own plan, beyond urging the referee and his assistants to monitor off-side in midfield, not wanting to be drawn into a slow, set-piece oriented, mauling contest.
They will want the Lions to be playing catch-up and abandoning caution, but it is not as if the tourists lack attacking threats. They have merely so far failed to maximise their potential, which may partly be down to holding something back for the Test series, but a factor is a lack of precision passing from left to right which has left Jack Nowell and George North underemployed.
A bold selection would see Anthony Watson at full-back with Elliot Daly on the wing, or the other way around, Sexton and Farrell wearing 10 and 12 but interchanging and the 13, Te’o or Henshaw on form, varying his position in attack and defence. It is a more likely plan B because the Lions’ first priority will be to make sure they are in contention in the final 20 minutes when their bench will be in play, but a feature of the opening four matches of the tour has been the difference sure passing makes.
On McGeechan’s 1993 tour, the victory over the Maori in Wellington set up the tour as the Lions thundered back from a losing position. They went for it then, learning that aiming low is not the route to success in New Zealand.
• This is an extract taken from the Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. To subscribe, just visit this page and follow the instructions.
