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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Politics
Mikey Smith & David Young & Oliver Milne

What the hell happened in the Irish elections and is Leo Varadkar still Taoiseach?

Counting is still underway in Ireland’s General Election, but it’s already clear the result will change the future shape of the country’s government.

Fine Gael, the party of Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar, looks to have been given a bloody nose by voters - looking set to lose several seats.

While counting will continue through Monday, and the final results remain a way off, it is clear Ireland now has three big players on its political stage.

But none of the three main parties are likely to come close to securing enough to achieve a majority in the Dail parliament.

Here’s a round up of what’s happened so far in the Irish election - and what happens next.

Who won the election?

In a remarkable result, left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin emerged as the most popular party in the country, securing the most first preference votes and topping the polls in the vast majority of constituencies across the state.

The party received 24.5% of the vote share, Fianna Fáil got 22.2% and Fine Gael 20.9%.

But Fianna Fáil look set to secure the most seats - mainly because Sinn Féin didn’t field enough candidates to capitalise on an unexpected poll surge.

The once certainty is that Fine Gael looks to be the big loser.

What’s taking so long?

Counting the votes takes AGES (AFP via Getty Images)

First off, Ireland doesn’t count overnight like we do.

Ballot boxes remained unopened until 9am yesterday.

And they have to count a number of times because it’s a “single, transferable vote” system.

That means instead of putting a cross in a box for one candidate, voters rank them in order of preference.

There are 43 constituencies, with each electing either three, four or five candidates - with 166 seats up for grabs in the election.

To win a seat a candidate must secure a minimum number of votes calculated by the number of people who have voted - this is the quota.

In a three-seat constituency, for example, the quota is a quarter of the valid votes, plus one – only three candidates can get this number of votes. In a four-seater, the quota is a fifth of the valid votes, plus one, and so on.

Once a candidate is elected their excess votes are redistributed.

Because of the relatively complicated system used for voting it is expected to take about two days to count all the votes.

So is Leo Varadkar still Taoiseach?

This is not the result he wanted (PA)

For now, yes. But he’s had a rough night.

He was outpolled by Paul Donnelly, a Sinn Féin candidate in his seat of Dublin West.

The PM only got over the line after five rounds of counting.

And we won't know whether he stays on as Taoiseach until someone can command a majority in the Dail - and there's no guarantee that'll be Mr Varadkar.

What happens next?

The Dail - the Irish Parliament (AFP/Getty Images)

Some sort of coalition.

There are 160 seats in the Dail.

The speaker is automatically re-elected, leaving 159 seats up for grabs and 80 the magic number for a majority.

Mr Varadkar's last government, a minority Fine Gael-led administration that included several independent TDs, was sustained in power through a historic confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil.

That landmark pact between two parties founded from opposing sides of Ireland's civil war of the 1920s took 70 days to negotiate following the inconclusive 2016 general election.

A new confidence and supply deal cannot be ruled out, potentially a reverse of the last one, with Fine Gael supporting a Fianna Fáil-led minority.

The fractured vote could even force Ireland's two traditional political superpowers to contemplate the once unthinkable, a grand coalition in government together.

If there’s a coalition, who would be in charge?

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald (Getty Images)

We don’t know yet.

None of the three will come close to securing enough seats to achieve a majority in the Dail parliament, so thoughts have already turned to the potential make up of a coalition administration.

Smaller parties such as the Greens, Labour, the Social Democrats and Solidarity/People Before Profit, and a sizeable number of independent TDs, may all be courted as the main parties seek junior coalition partners.

On Sunday, Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin declined the opportunity to repeat his pre-election pledge never to do business with Sinn Féin.

Though he later cautioned observers not to "jump the gun" in interpreting his remarks as a signal an alliance with the party was in the offing.

Mr Varadkar was more unequivocal in his response, making clear his party's stance on not dealing with Sinn Féin was unchanged.

Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald said she was willing to talk to all political leaders but expressed a desire to lead a coalition made up of left-leaning parties, without any input from Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, which are both centre-right in outlook.

Is this a Brexit thing?

(REUTERS)

Sinn Féin were very much opposed to the Brexit deal Mr Varadkar hatched with Boris Johnson in a Merseyside manor house Hotel in October.

And Leo Varadkar made Brexit a centrepiece of his campaign, claiming only his team had the experience to deliver a good trade deal.

But only 1% of voters said Brexit was the most important issue facing the country. And the campaign was instead dominated by domestic issues like spiralling rental prices, record-breaking homeless numbers, controversy over the state pension age and a struggling health service.

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