Although it seems like we’re still a while away, the advent calendar options flooding my inbox and Mariah Carey already being played at the shops means Aussies are already locked into that familiar pre‑Christmas rhythm.
The decorations are out before the Halloween cobwebs are down, family group chats are fracturing over who’s hosting, and the Bureau of Meteorology has officially entered the chat with its long‑range climate outlook for summer — giving us our first hints at what Christmas Day 2025 might actually feel like.
Before we get ahead of ourselves planning pavs and seafood platters, here’s the reality check: a specific forecast for Christmas Day isn’t available yet. The Bureau only releases those concrete day‑by‑day numbers a week ahead. For now, what we’ve got is a broader guide — the November 2025 to January 2026 climate outlook — which sets the tone for what kind of Christmas we’ll be sweating (or storm‑dodging) through.
According to BoM’s latest update, Australia’s summer will be warmer and, in many spots, wetter than average. Rainfall is tipped to be above average across much of northern Australia, especially far north Queensland, thanks to a moisture‑loaded atmosphere and some ocean drama brewing in the background. The Bureau says the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is sitting neutral, though a La Niña event could emerge in the months leading up to Christmas. Add in a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and you’ve got a recipe for tropical downpours up north — and heatwaves more likely down south.
Meanwhile, daytime temperatures are likely to be above average pretty much everywhere, with overnight temps following suit. So, while there’s no official “Christmas weather” prediction yet, the national vibe is clear: we’re in for a proper Aussie summer.
Here’s how that’s likely to play out around the country.
Sydney
Sydney’s in for a warm run‑up to Christmas, with the BoM’s outlook showing above‑average temperatures and balanced rainfall odds. It’s giving ‘blue skies at breakfast, humid crisis by lunch’. You’ll want to prep for a beach morning and a shady arvo.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s forecast comes with its usual warning: don’t get too attached to one outfit. Expect a warmer‑than‑usual December with short cold bursts mixed in. The odds are tilting dry to average overall — though the city’s reputation for mood swings remains undefeated.
Brisbane
If you’re up north, get ready for that full ‘sauna with decorations’ experience. Humidity is expected to be high, with storms brewing most afternoons through the season. Luckily, locals are pros at dodging lightning between backyard beers.
Adelaide
South Australia’s looking hot, dry, and textbook summer. Perfect for anyone who thinks 30‑plus degrees is ‘fine’ and believes in outdoor dining under the harsh, loving gaze of the midday sun. This is your dry heat zone — warm days, balmy nights, minimal cloud.
Perth
Western Australia’s sticking with its reputation for sun worship. BoM expects above‑average temperatures and fewer rain days overall. Sunshine, ocean breeze, and clear skies — the kind of forecast that’ll make your eastern cousin’s humid Christmas rant feel justified.
Hobart
Tasmania’s having a ‘warm by Hobart standards’ summer. Max temps should nudge into the 20s, with rainfall odds evenly split. Ideal for al fresco lunches that don’t come with spontaneous sweat patches.
Darwin
Darwin’s forecast reads like a survival guide. The wet season will be in full force, with high humidity, sticky heat, and daily storms. Think prawns, pav, and thundercracks in the distance.
Canberra
Canberra’s winning in the balance stakes: warm, dry, and clear through December. Max temps likely sit around the low 30s, nights cool enough for recovery. Backyard cricket fans, this is your time.
Christmas Day weather 2025 for regional cities
- Bendigo / Ballarat: Warm with slightly drier conditions than coastal Victoria — good conditions for long lunches that don’t end in sweat‑soaked regret.
- Newcastle / Wollongong: Warm and windy coastal vibes — mid‑20s‑to‑high‑20s range predicted, with mild humidity.
- Cairns / Townsville: High humidity and tropical storms on repeat. Locals know the drill.
- Launceston: Calm, low‑20s, and summery — arguably the chillest (literally) forecast on the list.
So no, there’s no exact report yet. But if the Bureau’s long‑range outlook is any indication, Australia’s Christmas Day 2025 will stick to the classics: heat, humidity, and one of your relatives kicking up a fuss at lunch. Lots to look forward to!!
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