If Mitch Trubisky is ever going to be a functional quarterback for the Bears, this is the time.
Their playoff hopes are teetering going into a home game against the Lions on Sunday, but far from dead. There’s still a path to at least nine wins and a postseason berth, and it hinges on Trubisky.
Newly reinstalled as the Bears’ starting quarterback, he will face four consecutive defenses that are 23rd or worse in points allowed and no better than 25th in opponent passer rating: the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. None of them have a top-10 offense, either, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to keep up.
The Lions have allowed the fourth-highest yard per attempt (7.9), grabbed the eighth-fewest interceptions (seven) and delivered the sixth-fewest sacks (16). It’s no wonder Trubisky and many other quarterbacks have had some of their best games against them.
Trubisky has always feasted on teams like the ones he’s about to face, making this an ideal opportunity to lift the Bears and boost his stock heading into 2021 free agency.
He has made 18 starts against teams that finished the season in the bottom 10 in opponent passer rating or are currently there this season and has completed 67.7% of his passes, averaged 231.4 yards per game and thrown for 31 touchdowns against nine interceptions for a 103.2 passer rating. The Bears, who went 13-5 in those games, wouldn’t be crazy to expect something close to that from him over the next four games.
The problem has been with his other 27 starts, the ones against teams that don’t have pitiful pass defenses, when he’s had 26 touchdowns, 25 interceptions and a 74.7 passer rating.
The circumstances surrounding Trubisky’s return as the starter Sunday at the Packers weren’t ideal, but his upcoming challenge is much more favorable. The Bears appear to have figured out a better combination on the offensive line, he’ll likely be more comfortable in his second start than his first and while the Packers aren’t an overwhelming defense, they’re significantly tougher than the ones he’ll face next.
Bears coach Matt Nagy believes strongly enough in that to bet his playoff chances, and with it his future employment, on Trubisky as the starter. Nick Foles’ hip injury last month opened the door for the change, but it’s a performance-based move. If it was about health and Foles had been playing well, he’d be starting Sunday.
“I’m not gonna get into any of those what-ifs with that,” Nagy said. “We’re focused right now on doing everything we can to [beat] Detroit. Nick was not ready [against the Packers]. Mitch was ready. And that’s how we attacked that.”
But they’re both ready now — Foles was a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday — and the Bears are sticking with Trubisky.
Nagy isn’t convinced Trubisky can save the Bears, but he believes Trubisky can at least be better than Foles and the 79.6 passer rating he posted over seven starts. While Nagy dragged out the quarterback decision last week, he came right out of the Green Bay game saying Trubisky would get the next start. There was no need to wait on a status report on Foles.
Retracing their steps back to March: They made a costly trade thinking Foles could be their starter, decided Trubisky beat him out in the preseason, reversed that decision three weeks later, shelved Foles with five games remaining and the season on the line.
“Nick came in and there were some times that we moved the ball and we did well, but ultimately we weren’t winning as much,” Nagy said. “Here we are, and Mitch is back at it... That is where we’re at and we want to work towards his strengths.”
It’s not a great plan, but these next four defenses are bad enough that it might just work.
