PITTSBURGH — Last September, days before the NFL season began, the Arizona Cardinals signed receiver DeAndre Hopkins to a monstrous contract that included $43 million in guaranteed money and an average annual salary of $27 million over the life of the contract.
Six months later, things are much different. The NFL receiver market went from thriving to a near collapse.
Receivers hoping to strike it rich in free agency were deeply disappointed. The market was down for almost every receiver, including JuJu Smith-Schuster, who agreed to return to the Steelers on a one-year deal for $8 million.
The richest receiver contract during this free-agency period belongs to Kenny Golladay, who signed a three-year deal worth $18 million a year with the Giants. But that contract is an outlier. The others were closer in worth to Smith-Schuster's deal and a far cry from the contracts receivers had been signing in recent years.
Hopkins is one of four NFL receivers making $20 million or more per season and one of 16 making $15 million or more.
Widely regarded as the top receiver in the league, Hopkins is the prototypical game-breaker and earns $5 million more per year than the next highest-paid receiver. But there are all kinds of receivers making $15 million a season or more, including possession receivers such as Jarvis Landry, who is often compared to Smith-Schuster.
Why are receivers suddenly being undervalued?
The pandemic and its financial fallout is part of the reason, but it's not the biggest factor. The biggest factor is the number of NFL-ready receivers who are entering the league on an annual basis. This year is no different.
"There's going to be a lot of depth at wide receiver all the way around," ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said. "I like the wide receiver position a lot. It's the strongest position overall in this draft."
And it's been that way for a few years now. Last year there were 16 receivers taken in the first three rounds of the draft. This year is similarly strong.
NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has eight receivers in his list of top 50 prospects and said there is great depth after them, too.
"All the way into the fourth and fifth round there are going to be good wide receivers again," Jeremiah said.
In essence, teams are betting they can get a player in the draft just like Smith-Schuster and at a much cheaper price on a controllable contract for the next 4-5 years.
The running back market has been depressed for a decade or more. They have seen their worth on the open market decrease, and there has been a trickle-down effect to the draft.
Running backs are rarely selected in the first round, and there is a belief among front office types that the value is getting them in the second round and after.
The receiver market is not likely to get as bad as the running back market because running backs have a shorter shelf life than receivers, but there are some similarities in the positions that are affecting salaries.
In addition to the simple economics of supply and demand, NFL general managers have come to the realization that mid- and late-round receivers can be just as effective as first-round receivers.
The Steelers have proven this to be true over the years. They haven't taken a receiver in the first round of the draft since they drafted Santonio Holmes in 2006. Yet they are considered the league's gold standard when it comes to identifying and drafting receivers.
Since then, they've enjoyed great success in other rounds. Antonio Brown was a sixth-round pick; Martavis Bryant a fourth-round pick; Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Markus Wheaton and Diontae Johnson third-round picks; and Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Chase Claypool second-round picks.
And Smith-Schuster is the rare player to sign a second contract with the Steelers. The only other one of that group to do it was Brown.
For the most part, the Steelers cycle through receivers and change them out every few years.
One other factor is the pricey franchise tag number on receivers. This year it was $15.9 million. Chris Godwin of Tampa and Allen Robinson of Chicago were the only receivers to get tagged. In 2022, the projected franchise tag is expected to be $19 million.
This, along with some recent first-round receiver busts such as John Ross, Mike Williams and Laquon Treadwell, has given general managers reason to proceed with some caution.
In 2019, two tight ends — T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant — were selected before any receivers. The same could happen this year with Florida tight end Kyle Pitts being projected among the top picks.
The franchise tag number for tight ends this year is only $9.6 million.
"Look at the franchise number and look at the difference in money," Jeremiah said. "I think there's a difference of like 6 million bucks. So not only do you have a rare mismatch player that's hard to find, but once you get to the second contract he's going to be extremely affordable compared to if you were going to take a receiver with that same pick.
"So you're getting the same level of impact without having to pay that same level of cost. To me, I think that could be something that could be a tiebreaker when you're making that decision."
