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National

What's causing all this rain in south-east Queensland and how does it stack up with past flooding?

The rain has sat over south-east Queensland for days. (AAP: Jono Searle)

This is far from the first time Brisbane and south-east Queensland have flooded, but every time is different and devastating in its own way. 

According to Jackson Browne, senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, this rain is being caused by a slow moving low pressure trough which has been sitting close to and occasionally over the south-east Queensland coast.

"With the slow movement or even stationary nature of the system, it just causes those rainfall accumulations to really escalate," he explained.

Usually weather systems travel across the country from the west to the east, but this trough and all its rain has been stuck over south-east Queensland for days now. 

"That hasn't allowed the normal west to east progression."

South-east Queensland has received a torrential amount of rainfall over the past week. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Not only has this system been hanging around, but it is also bringing particularly heavy rain and storms. 

Mr Browne said while there have been many transient small-scale lows, on Sunday a more substantial low formed.

"It's really encouraging what we call 'convergence' into the low," he said. 

"That convergence is driving thunderstorms which are delivering that intense rainfall, especially over the course of today but also to a lesser extent over the past two nights.

"The storms today … have really added insult to injury because you've got the the background of the heavy rainfall." 

How is it comparing with the floods of the past?

With an already saturated catchment it does not take much to trigger flash flooding.

Of course it is not just flash, but also riverine flooding that we are dealing with at this point. 

Straight off the bat, final comparisons for this event will not be possible until the flooding is over. 

More rain is expected this evening, rivers are still rising, water is still making its way down from Wivenhoe Dam, and the high tides keep coming. 

This situation is far from over. 

But for those looking for some perspective on how things are stacking up so far, the latest river and rainfall levels are provided by the Bureau of Meteorology

As of 4:13pm local time on Sunday, the Brisbane River Port Office gauge was up over the moderate flood level, but the river was still rising. 

The Port Office gauge on the Brisbane River was sitting at moderate flood levels Sunday afternoon, but has since been raised to major. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

At around 3 metres, the flood so far is short of the 2011 and 1974 floods. But at 7pm local time, BOM said the river was expected to reach 3.7m Monday morning.

The big Brisbane floods of living memory are the 1974 and 2011 floods, where large sections of the city were inundated. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Of course, as was said at press conferences again and again today, this situation is different from the events of the past.

For anyone new in town or wanting a reminder, you can see where the river rose to in 2011 and 1974 using the Brisbane City Council flood awareness map.

There have been many changes in the city with new roads, building, and drainage systems since the last flood. 

The water would not necessarily rise in exactly the same places this time around, but it is a pretty good guide. 

Meanwhile, as of 4:13pm local time, the Bremer River was still marked as rising in Ipswich

Bremer River is well above major flood levels as of 4:13 pm local time Sunday. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

And again, the rain is still falling.

As of 4pm local time the Bremer River gauge at Ipswich was lower than 2011 levels. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

At Gympie, as of 4:12pm local time, the Mary River was sitting at 21.81m, 11.91m over the bridge. 

Despite dropping over the past few hours, flood levels were still above major levels at Gympie Sunday afternoon. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Flood levels are now falling but earlier surpassed those of living memory when compared to the big floods of the past. 

Water has now been over the bridge at Gympie since Wednesday. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

What's to come?

The system has started to slowly transition south and is expected to keep slowly making its way towards NSW. 

Good news for those to the north, but conversely Mr Browne warned of a pick up in rainfall in the Logan, Gold Coast, and the hinterland areas.

With another night of rain forecast for Brisbane and Ipswich, then the threat moving rather than disappearing, keep informed and do the best you can to stay safe. 

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