The 49ers’ acquisition of the No. 13 pick in this year’s draft greatly improved their ability to add a game-changing player with their first pick.
They were fortunate last season for quarterback Kyler Murray to go No. 1 overall, allowing defensive end Nick Bosa to slip to No. 2 to San Francisco. With 12 picks in front of them this year, they need several things to go right to maximize the talent and options available to them at No. 13.
Here are four things that the 49ers need to hope for if they’re going to get an elite talent at one of their top positions of need:
Quarterbacks fall
There are limits to the realistic hope the 49ers can have that a few of the quarterbacks slide. LSU’s Joe Burrow isn’t going to fall. Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is probably a top-five lock as well. After that, San Francisco should cross its fingers that players like Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Utah State’s Jordan Love slide some.
If Herbert falls out of the top 10, he could become an enticing target for a team looking to trade up. Herbert going in that 10-12 range should push one of the top receivers further down the board for San Francisco. It could also add value to the 13th pick if Herbert falls to the 49ers and they aim to trade back from that spot.
Love isn’t liable to go near the middle of the first round, but if he starts sliding toward No. 31, it’ll make that selection for San Francisco a valuable trade target if a team wants to trade up into the back of the first round to make sure they get the fifth year on the rookie contract for Love.
The 49ers are probably not in the market for a quarterback in the first round, but getting some of this class’ top QBs to drop to them at each of their two picks could have a ripple effect that ultimately benefits them.
A run on offensive linemen
There are a bevy of high-level offensive tackle prospects in this year’s draft. The last Draft Wire mock had four offensive tackles going in the first 15 picks. For the 49ers, a run on those tackles early in the first round could push teams like the Jets and Raiders, both of which need receivers and pick ahead of the 49ers, to reach for a tackle with so many coming off the board early.
While the 49ers could certainly use some offensive line help, it’s not something they need to prioritize early in 2020. More offensive linemen going early in the draft pushes defensive tackles, wide receivers and cornerbacks further down the board. Additional options for San Francisco at those positions of need puts them in a very advantageous spot with that 13th pick.
No run on receivers
While this is a deep wide receiver class, the 49ers have an opportunity to pick at 13 with effectively the entire group of receivers on the table for them. The worst-case scenario is a run on receivers begins before the Jets or Raiders at the No. 11 and 12 picks. If something crazy happens and three or more receivers go before San Francisco picks at 13, it dramatically impacts their ability to get a game-changing offensive weapon at that spot.
There’ll still be receivers that can help them later on in the draft, so it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but considering the scenario where all the receivers are available to them, not getting any of the top pass catchers in this class would be tough luck.
First-round surprises
The 49ers could use an unexpected pick or two where the television draft analysts all exclaim loudly in shock and then break down why the team reached for the player. This benefits them at both No. 13 and 31, but the more it happens before No.13, the more it means top-end talent is falling.
