The EU has concluded “there are indications” that Israel is in breach of human rights obligations over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. But that does not mean the bloc of 27 countries will impose sanctions on Israel anytime soon.
What has happened?
The EU’s foreign policy service has reached the cautious conclusion that “there are indications” that Israel is in breach of human rights obligations, in a review of its association agreement with the Middle Eastern country.
The EU-Israel association agreement, which came into force in 2000, underpins the relationship between the EU’s 27 member states and the Mediterranean nation, not only concerning trade but social and environmental cooperation.
Under pressure from EU member states appalled by the humanitarian blockade of the Gaza Strip, the EU’s high representative for foreign policy, Kaja Kallas, launched a review last month.
The review was based on article 2 of the agreement, which states that respect for human rights and democratic principles is an “essential element”.
What next?
The report, which is a leaked unpublished draft, is expected to be presented to Israel’s government by Kallas.
More immediately, she will outline the findings to the EU’s 27 foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday. She wants to assess how far governments back the review and what to do next.
While the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains catastrophic – with near daily fatal shootings of people queuing for food rations, warnings of famine and the collapse of water systems – EU processes move slowly.
How slowly?
Kallas is expected to present a list of possible options to foreign ministers in July. In theory these could include full suspension of trade with Israel, or freezing its participation in EU programmes, but nobody knows.
Such measures to put pressure on Israel would require further legal processes and their approval is highly uncertain.
Even hedged in the low-key, caveat-laden language of the EU, the leaked document marks a significant moment in EU-Israel relations. But it is far from clear if it will change the calculus for the Israeli government.
