New satellite image analysis shows China has rapidly developed roads leading up to the heavily contested Line of Actual Control with India in the past year, an Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) report says.
The infrastructure developments played a role in last week's border skirmish between the two nuclear-armed nations, according to the report's authors Nathan Ruser and Baani Grewal.
The LAC is a hotly contested area snaking along the Himalayas, dividing the world's two most populous nations, and it was the site of a fatal clash between soldiers in 2020.
Mr Ruser said the Chinese side was investing heavily in infrastructure to gain a strategic advantage, and that countries like Australia should pay attention due to the broader implications for neighbouring countries, and the region.
But some experts warn that viewing this region purely through geopolitics can lead to intensifying militarisation, damaging the environment and impacting the lives of people who live there.
What do the satellite images show?
Before-and-after satellite images show key access roads on the Chinese side have been resurfaced or upgraded, and a new road has been constructed on the Yangtse Plateau from Tangwu New Village to within 150 metres of the LAC ridge.
"It was the construction of this new road that enabled Chinese troops to surge upwards to Indian positions during the 9 December skirmish," according to the report.
Mr Ruser told the ABC that satellite images taken five days after the clash showed footprints in the snow.
"Prior to this latest wave of construction, there was a small foot track that was probably used by Chinese military patrols or the nomadic herdsmen that live on the plateau," Mr Ruser said.
"And then in mid-2022, that got upgraded and constructed into a … pretty comprehensive road.
"It really shows the amount of investment that China has put into its border infrastructure."
Both India and China said the latest incident was caused by the other attempting to cross into their territory.
The ASPI analysis said while there was no evidence the latest reported "intrusion" by Chinese troops was aimed at capturing Indian outposts or territory, it could be part of a strategy of normalising China's People's Liberation Army presence on the LAC.
"By engaging in such an intrusion, the PLA is able to strategically position any 'retreat' to a higher location on the plateau," the analysis said, adding part of the retreat from the most recent clash was to a small camp at the end of the new road a short distance from the LAC.
This "enables China to message such a retreat as a concession or de-escalation rather than an escalatory step or one that changes the status quo", the report argued.
The ASPI report described the situation as a kind of "escalation trap" for India.
"I think the way in which escalation has been managed does show that there isn't an appetite, from either side, for the conflict at the moment," Mr Ruser added.
He said that clashes were often perceived as "tit for tat" and escaped notice of countries like Australia and the US, which regularly speak out about the importance of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, for example.
"It's probably not as acute a risk of conflict, but there is certainly a risk of accidental escalation — and remember that India and China are both nuclear armed states," he said.
"So I think there needs to be more of a recognition that this issue isn't just something that affects China and India — if the status quo on this border is changed, then it has implications for peace and order in the whole region."
'Frustrating and possibly dangerous'
Dr Ruth Gamble, a senior lecturer and environmental historian of the Himalaya from La Trobe University, explained the LAC follows the McMahon Line, which was drawn by the British and skips between mountain peaks.
"As they have agreed not to use guns at this level, these clashes resemble pub or football brawls, except with laddis or sticks. During the worst clashes, they put spikes on the sticks," she said.
She added that building roads on permafrost damages it, and that it was difficult to maintain roads at this altitude, more than 4,000 metres above sea level.
"They need to be re-made after each winter and monsoon seasons," Dr Gamble said.
"Building all-weather roads and maintaining them – a full-time job – enables more troops to get closer to the border, and this will likely lead to more clashes as the two sides negotiate their positions."
Dr Gamble said it was "much easier to build roads on a plateau than up the side of a mountain, especially within a seismically active mountain range".
"The Chinese army can roll out tarmac on the Plateau relatively easily; they've also gotten really good at it."
But she said approaching the issue purely through a strategic lens was "frustrating and possibly dangerous".
"It's also too important an ecological region to be reduced to a strategic board game," she said.
"Most ASPI reports about this area describe the strategic implications for India and China and ignore the environmental damage border escalations cause, and the strains being posted at high altitudes put on the soldiers.
"It's a vital, important, and fragile ecosystem that we should be protecting. It's also near people's homes."
She said there needed to be a focus on how the two countries could de-escalate tensions and work towards environmental protection.
Dr Alexander Davis, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Western Australia, agreed.
"Purely strategic analyses of this region are ultimately unhelpful and they feed in to the problems the region faces," he said.
"Thinking of the Himalayas as a place only for geopolitics and strategy contributes to environmental degradation, and dispossession of local communities."
How building roads can increase tensions
Dr Davis added that road-building on one side provoked anxiety on the other.
"Strategically, this leads to the perpetuation and worsening of the conflict," he said.
He added it was harder for India to construct roads due to the terrain on their side, which included jungle, pine forests, mud and water.
"China uses India's road building as a justification for its roads, and India does the same, and so the cycle continues. More road building on either side will only further aggravate tensions," he said.
"Neither side benefits from this. Drawing borderlines over icy mountain ridges leads to their militarisation and accelerates localised climate change. This is not a game either side can win."
Dr David Brewster, a senior researcher at the Australian National University's National Security College, said the timing of the latest skirmish was unusual – in the northern hemisphere's winter, rather than summer.
He added that the clash with Indian troops came at a time when Beijing was being relatively open to Australia, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong making the first visit to China for an Australian minister since 2019.
"They'll push against some neighbours, while they're befriending others," he said.
"I find it interesting that they've opened the doors for the Australians right now, while they're pushing against the Indians."
The ABC has approached China's Ministry of Defence, India's Ministry of External Affairs and the Chinese embassy in Australia for comment.
