Cristiano Ronaldo's late equaliser against Atalanta meant that Manchester United maintained top spot in Group F but on Tuesday they have a must-win clash with Villarreal.
Michael Carrick will take charge of his first match as United manager, albeit on a temporary basis for now, after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's sacking.
With work still to be done to ensure qualification to the knockout stages for the first time since 2018-19, United's fate is still firmly in their own hands — but defeat in Spain could through a spanner in the works.
If United were to lose to Villarreal, it will leave it all to do in the final match-day of this season’s group stage, a win against Young Boys would leave them hoping the Yellow Submarine overcome Atalanta to ensure second place within the group.
If Atalanta were to win their final game against the 2021 UEFA Europa League winners, United’s head-to-head record with Villarreal would then begin to cause complicated repercussions.
A loss of more than one goal on Tuesday would mean no qualification, but defeat by a sole goal would see United needing to win by five goals against Young Boys.
Of course, wins in both of their remaining ties would guarantee top spot and progression to the Round of 16, but anything less than that would leave it all still to play for heading into the final matchday.
A draw in Spain at the very minimum should see United progress, with United keen to avoid a third-place finish, which would see them drop into the Europa League again.
A loss against Villarreal and a draw against Young Boys isn’t the end of the world, but hopes would then rest on Atalanta losing to Villarreal (and ending on eight points) for the Reds to progress.
- If United beat Villarreal and Young Boys - qualify as group winners
- If United lose to Villarreal and beat Young Boys - qualify as long as Atalanta don't win both their games
- If United draw to Villarreal and beat Young Boys - qualify
- If United draw to both Villarreal and Young Boys - out if Atalanta and Villarreal surpass nine points
- If United lose to Villarreal and Young Boys - out, providing Atalanta win at least one remaining game
- If United beat Villarreal and lose/draw vs Young Boys - qualify
- If United lose to Villarreal and lose/draw vs Young Boys - out, providing Atalanta and Villarreal surpass eight points
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