The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK is 38.7C, which was measured at Cambridge Botanic Garden on July 25, 2019. But scientists at the Met Office say the record could be broken within the next seven days.
The forecaster has issued a rare amber warning of extreme heat for Sunday (July 17) and Monday (July 18) covering much of Wales, east of Swansea. While the long hot summer of 1976 is rarely omitted in discussions of heatwaves, its peak of 35.9C on July 3 is not among the UK's top 10 hottest days on record. Eight of the 10 days on the current list occurred after the millennium, as climate change continues to impact the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat events.
The Met Office has only issued an extreme heat warning twice before. The first two alerts, both amber, came almost a year ago – July 19 and 20, 2021 – a month after the forecaster's extreme heat warning service was launched.
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A persistent area of high pressure centred over the southern half of the UK is responsible for this week's warm weather. Developing airflow from the south is forecast to bring across the very high temperatures currently building over the continent.
Will the record high get broken this weekend?
The Met Office says there is a chance the UK's record high could be broken during the upcoming extreme heat event. Some of its forecasting models are showing maximum temperatures above 40°C in parts of the UK, although it is more likely to peak in the mid to high 30s.
Rebekah Sherwin, deputy chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said the national forecaster will continue to monitor the situation closely. She said: “Some models have been producing maximum temperatures in excess of 40°C in parts of the UK over the coming weekend and beyond.
"At longer time scales temperature forecasts become less reliable, so whilst these figures can’t be ruled out, they are still only a low probability. A number of weather scenarios are still possible and at the current time, mid- or perhaps high-30s are looking more likely.”
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