A powerful climate pattern known as El Niño is expected to return in the coming months and scientists are warning it could intensify into a rare Super El Niño, with far-reaching consequences for weather across the globe, including here in the UK.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean, alongside its cooler counterpart La Niña.
It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average, disrupting normal wind patterns and shifting rainfall around the world.
These changes may seem distant, but they can trigger a cascade of knock-on effects - influencing everything from storms to heatwaves thousands of miles away.
What does a Super El Niño mean?
A standard El Niño is declared when ocean temperatures are at least 0.5C above average. A Super El Niño, however, is far more intense, with temperatures exceeding 2C above normal. These events are rare but can dramatically amplify global weather extremes.
Early signs suggest one may be developing later this year.
Large volumes of unusually warm water are already moving across the Pacific beneath the surface, a key precursor, while some forecasting models, including leading European systems, indicate the event could strengthen significantly.
How will El Niño affect the UK?
While El Niño’s most direct impacts are felt in regions like the Americas, Africa and Australia, it can still shape British weather in subtle ways.
Historically, strong El Niño winters have been linked to milder, wetter conditions in parts of northern Europe, including the UK, although the relationship is not always straightforward.
More broadly, a strong El Niño tends to push global temperatures higher by releasing heat from the oceans into the atmosphere.
That could increase the likelihood of record-breaking global warmth in the next couple of years, building on an already accelerating trend driven by climate change.
For the UK, that may translate into an increased risk of unusual weather patterns, from unseasonably warm spells to periods of heavy rainfall. It can also influence storm tracks across the Atlantic, potentially affecting how and where winter storms develop.
Globally, the stakes are higher. Super El Niños have previously been linked to severe droughts in some regions, flooding in others, and heightened wildfire risk, alongside widespread disruption to agriculture, ecosystems and economies.
There is still uncertainty over how strong this developing El Niño will become. Forecasting at this time of year is particularly challenging, and scientists caution that projections may shift in the months ahead.
