Vikings safety Anthony Harris will reportedly play under the franchise tag, which means his long-term future with the team is uncertain at the moment.
Sure, Harris is still under contract, but only until after the 2020 season. Then, the Vikings may have to shell out a long-term deal and that could be pricey, considering his level of play.
Giving Harris a big deal becomes a problem when you think about Harrison Smith’s long-term future with the team. His contract with Minnesota runs out after the 2021 season.
Sure, Minnesota could secure both those safeties for the future with large extensions, but is it the best idea to prioritize the safety position over other parts of the roster? I’m not so sure that the Vikings should want to do that, unless at least one of them takes a significant pay cut relative to their level of play.
If Minnesota has to choose between Smith and Harris when it comes to a large contract extension, I think the Vikings might have a hard time deciding. Here’s the case for Smith:
Smith is more proven
Harris has been arguably one of the better safeties in the NFL, but he has gained that reputation with a small sample size.
Harris was stellar in 2019, probably better than Smith in pass coverage, and if he plays like that again in 2020, it becomes harder to argue for Smith in this scenario.
However, Harris’ 2019 was the only time he started double-digit games. He was good in 2018 when he played, but he only started nine games, tallying three picks.
Smith has had three consecutive seasons of intercepting at least three passes. In 2016, he had zero interceptions. But picks don’t always reflect how good a player was in coverage.
Sometimes, defensive backs can force the quarterback to throw elsewhere. Also, while there are players who consistently make interceptions, the stat —and turnovers in general — can be volatile on a year-to-year basis. So how was Smith during the 2016 season, the one year where he did not have at least two interceptions?
According to NFL.com, pretty good. Here’s what the outlet said about Smith, when they ranked him No. 74 on its top 100 list of players following the 2016 season:
“Smith patrols the defensive backfield and is always accounted for by opposing offenses. Despite not recording an interception, Smith finished with 91 tackles, two sacks and two passes defensed in 14 games in 2016. Opponents know not to test him, and the Vikings knew it would be in their best interest to keep him, extending Smith before the 2016 season.”
Smith didn’t record a pick, but found a way to be an effective player, as he always has in his career.
Hopefully for the Vikings, Harris’ success isn’t a flash in the pan. But right now, Smith is more of a known commodity.
Smith being older than Harris doesn’t make a huge difference
Some people will say that Harris just needs time to prove that he’s better than Smith, but Harris is already 28. Though it’s no fault of his own, he had to move up the depth chart in order to gain the playing time that Smith has gotten throughout his career.
Smith is 31, and maybe he hits a wall, but there are plenty of safeties who have found ways to be solid in their 30’s, such as Eric Weddle and Ed Reed.
Also, Harris will be in that age bracket in just a few seasons. Smith might be cheaper, too, on account of the perceived notion that Harris would have more prime years left.
Indeed, Harris’ prime years are less likely to be behind him than Smith’s, but I don’t think either of them will reach a major decline in production anytime soon. For me, then, it comes down to which is the better fit for the Vikings, which leads me to…
Smith fits the current Vikings defense better
The Vikings have deployed a lot of nickel in the past, and while Harris was a better conventional safety than Smith was in 2019, the role Smith plays makes him very valuable to the defense.
Smith is an in-the-box player who can make things happen near the line of scrimmage. This kind of safety is important for the nickel defense, where there are typically just two linebackers on the field. Smith can, in a way, fulfill a hybrid role where he brings a similar skillset as a linebacker on certain plays.
Our friends at Touchdown Wire reported that Smith played 91 snaps on the defensive line, 278 snaps in the box, 91 snaps in the slot, 22 snaps at boundary cornerback, and 488 snaps in a deep safety alignment. That’s a whole lot of versatility.
How effective is Smith in that role?
As reported by Pro Football Focus, Smith had 66 tackles and 20 “stops,” plays which are considered a failure for the offense. He can disrupt the defense in more ways than just shutting down wideouts.
So Harris might be the best fit for a lot of NFL teams, but Smith is the best fit for Minnesota with its current defensive system. Maybe the team finds a way to pay both of them and have a successful roster around them. Or maybe they have to pick one. If they do, I think it should be Smith.
