What if Red Bull/Verstappen never raced in F1 2023?

Fernando Alonso humbles Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz in wheel-to-wheel combat, then profits from Charles Leclerc’s engine failure to win the opening race of 2023. The two-time Formula 1 world champion’s Bahrain success marks his first victory since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix.

Aston Martin sporting director Andy Stevenson earns his pay cheque by successfully protesting a 10-second penalty to cement another Alonso triumph in Saudi Arabia. What a winter recovery for a team that finished seventh in the 2022 constructors’ points!

But then Hamilton emerges unscathed from the late carnage down under to get off the mark aboard the capricious W14. Does this signal a blockbuster title fight lies in wait between the two ex-McLaren team-mates?

That’s what the narrative might have looked like after the first three rounds of the 2023 season in a hypothetical world where Red Bull does not compete in F1.

Of course, simply wiping Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez from the results of 22 GPs only paints a two-dimensional picture. It doesn’t, for example, restore Esteban Ocon to the points in a Qatar sprint race from which he was eliminated in a multi-car collision involving Nico Hulkenberg and Perez. Nor does deleting the RB19s turn back the clock for Lando Norris to alter how he attacks Turn 1 in Brazil when it’s no longer pointless to burn through his Pirelli tyres if Verstappen will inevitably surge back past.

But it does indicate how tight the field was behind the Milton Keynes attack. Theoretically, remove the Red Bulls and there are six different GP winners (Alonso, Hamilton, Leclerc, Sainz, Norris and Oscar Piastri), rather than the actual three (Verstappen, Perez, Sainz).

Without Verstappen and Red Bull in the title equation, Hamilton and Alonso would have been title rivals (Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images)

The drivers’ championship is decided by just 17 points rather than the true 290-point chasm that opened between Verstappen and Perez, with Hamilton a further 51 points in arrears. The constructors’ crown also goes down to the wire, with only seven points settling the spoils.

Cla	Driver	Points	Grands Prix
			BH	SA	AU	AZ	Mi	MC	ES	CA	AT	GB	HU	BE	NL	IT	SG	JP	QA	US	MX	BR	LV	AD
1	Lewis Hamilton	331	15	15	25	16	12	16	26	19	9	18	19	22	12	12	16	12	5	8	26	12	10	6
2	Fernando Alonso	314	25	26	18	23	26	25	10	25	21	10	6	15	26	6	-	6	12	-	-	18	6	10
3	Charles Leclerc	289	-	10	-	33	10	10	2	15	25	6	10	30	-	18	12	15	12	7	18	6	25	25
4	Lando Norris	287	-	-	12	6	-	4	-	-	20	26	25	14	10	8	18	26	26	31	12	34	-	15
5	Carlos Sainz Jr.	283	18	12	2	21	15	6	15	12	20	4	8	6	15	25	25	10	4	23	15	15	12	-
6	George Russell	248	10	18	-	16	18	12	18	-	13	12	12	14	-	15	-	8	21	18	10	7	8	18
7	Oscar Piastri	145	-	-	8	3	-	2	-	2	-	15	15	8	6	2	8	18	33	1	6	1	5	12
8	Lance Stroll	131	12	-	15	13	1	-	12	6	14	-	4	6	2	-	-	-	2	10	-	15	15	4
9	Pierre Gasly	107	6	6	-	-	8	8	4	1	4	-	-	9	18	-	10	2	2	16	1	10	2	-
10	Esteban Ocon	102	-	8	-	-	6	18	8	8	4	-	-	9	4	-	-	4	8	-	2	4	18	1
11	Alexander Albon	65	4	-	-	3	-	-	-	10	2	8	2	-	8	10	2	-	3	8	4	-	1	-
12	Yuki Tsunoda	47	2	2	4	4	2	-	1	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	9	-	11	-	8
13	Valtteri Bottas	29	8	-	2	-	-	1	-	4	-	1	1	1	-	4	-	-	6	1	-	-	-	-
14	Nico Hülkenberg	20	-	1	10	-	-	-	-	-	5	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	-
15	Zhou Guanyu	18	-	-	6	-	-	-	6	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	-	-	-	-	-
16	Daniel Ricciardo	12											-	-	-					-	8	2	-	2
17	Kevin Magnussen	12	-	4	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	Liam Lawson	9													-	2	6	1	-
19	Logan Sargeant	9	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	2	-	-
20	Nyck de Vries	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Cla	Constructor	Points
1	Mercedes	579
2	Ferrari	572
3	Aston Martin/Mercedes	445
4	McLaren/Mercedes	432
5	Alpine/Renault	209
6	Williams/Mercedes	74
7	AlphaTauri/Honda RBPT	68
8	Alfa Romeo/Ferrari	47
9	Haas/Ferrari	32

As per reality, Aston Martin still endures a second-half drop-off after an overly flexible wing is outlawed and it gets dragged down the wrong development path by trying to run 2024-spec componentry (although, is the team so experimental if Red Bull is out of the picture and it’s in the title hunt?).

Hamilton would have wrapped up an eighth title were Red Bull not on the grid this year (Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images)

By the time the scores tail off, Alonso has six wins to his name to keep himself in contention versus Hamilton. But, heading into the Abu Dhabi finale, to wrap up a third title, he needs to win, and the Mercedes racer to fail to nick a point. Instead, Alonso only outscores the Briton by four, thus confirming Hamilton as an eight-time champion.

The Spaniard, by contrast, rues his latest near miss. He’s fewer than 30 career points away from having been a six-time title winner.

Leclerc is a further 25 points further back in third, but Ferrari is buoyed heading into the Christmas break after winning the final two rounds in Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi. Norris fills a tightly packed Scuderia driver sandwich, as his 287 points plays the 289 of Leclerc and Sainz’s 283. George Russell is cut adrift on 248, albeit with almost a century more than Piastri.

Despite Russell dropping behind both Ferraris, Hamilton’s heavy lifting enables Mercedes to return to the top of the constructors’ tree. The Three-Pointed Star ties Williams for second in the all-time winners’ list on nine titles.

Maranello loses out on a 17th crown by seven points, having narrowly outperformed its German rival in Brazil before thumping it in Vegas. Alas, Leclerc’s season finale triumph was not enough to change the tide as Sainz bookended Ferrari’s campaign with further engine trouble.

All told, to the surprise of no one, it’s a much more hotly contested campaign - albeit probably not in that top tier reserved for the 1982, 2012, and 2021 epics. One that might just keep a TV audience engaged for longer, potentially even help it begin to grow again.

Given how imbalanced the Red Bull driver pairing was in 2023, consider also what happens when only Verstappen is removed from the picture.

Without Verstappen racing, team-mate Perez would have taken top honours (Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool)

In this version of events, Perez counts six GP victories - including three wins from the first four rounds - to become Mexico’s first F1 world champion, even if he doesn’t top the podium again after Monza and, on home soil, he still potentially clatters Leclerc into Turn 1 to wipe out. It’s a fine showing as he stretches 55 points (a smidge more than the real-world 51) clear of runner-up Hamilton.

Cla	Driver	Points	Grands Prix
			BH	SA	AU	AZ	Mi	MC	ES	CA	AT	GB	HU	BE	NL	IT	SG	JP	QA	US	MX	BR	LV	AD
1	Sergio Pérez	353	25	26	13	33	25	-	16	11	27	10	18	25	15	25	6	-	2	20	-	22	18	16
2	Lewis Hamilton	298	12	12	25	13	10	16	25	18	6	18	16	19	10	10	16	12	5	8	26	9	8	4
3	Lando Norris	270	-	-	10	4	-	4	-	-	16	26	25	12	8	6	18	26	26	31	12	34	-	12
4	Fernando Alonso	266	18	18	18	16	19	25	8	25	17	8	4	12	26	4	-	6	12	-	-	18	4	8
5	Charles Leclerc	261	-	8	-	25	8	10	1	15	25	4	8	23	-	15	12	15	12	7	18	5	25	25
6	Carlos Sainz Jr.	246	15	10	-	20	12	6	12	12	17	2	6	6	12	18	25	10	4	22	15	12	10	-
7	George Russell	220	8	15	-	13	15	12	18	-	10	12	10	12	-	12	-	8	21	14	10	6	6	18
8	Oscar Piastri	127	-	-	6	1	-	2	-	1	-	15	12	8	4	-	8	18	33	-	6	-	3	10
9	Lance Stroll	101	10	-	15	10	-	-	10	4	10	-	2	4	1	-	-	-	1	8	-	12	12	2
10	Pierre Gasly	88	4	4	-	-	6	8	2	-	2	-	-	8	18	-	10	2	1	13	1	8	1	-
11	Esteban Ocon	83	-	6	-	-	4	18	6	6	3	-	-	7	2	-	-	4	8	-	2	2	15	-
12	Alexander Albon	46	2	-	-	1	-	-	-	8	1	6	1	-	6	8	1	-	3	5	4	-	-	-
13	Yuki Tsunoda	30	1	1	2	2	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	7	-	8	-	6
14	Valtteri Bottas	18	6	-	1	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	6	-	-	-	-	-
15	Nico Hülkenberg	13	-	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
16	Zhou Guanyu	12	-	-	4	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-
17	Daniel Ricciardo	10											-	-	-					-	8	1	-	1
18	Liam Lawson	6													-	1	4	1	-
19	Kevin Magnussen	6	-	2	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	Logan Sargeant	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	-
21	Nyck de Vries	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Cla	Constructor	Points
1	Mercedes	518
2	Ferrari	507
3	McLaren/Mercedes	397
4	Aston Martin/Mercedes	367
5	Red Bull/Honda RBPT	353
6	Alpine/Renault	171
7	Williams/Mercedes	50
8	AlphaTauri/Honda RBPT	46
9	Alfa Romeo/Ferrari	30
10	Haas/Ferrari	19

Most notable is what happens behind the top two.

Would Perez have gone for his bold move on Leclerc at the start in Mexico without Verstappen there too? (Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images)

In an alternative world without Red Bull, the drivers’ standings retain the same order but everyone else moves up two places - albeit Daniel Ricciardo and Zhou Guanyu swap.

But by only taking away Verstappen’s scores, Norris leapfrogs Alonso and Leclerc to score third place. With Verstappen out the way, the McLaren driver breaks his topflight victory duck to win five GPs aboard the upgraded MCL60.

Perez flying solo slots Red Bull into the middle of the pack, ending the year fifth in the constructors’ pile. Mercedes again edges Ferrari, while McLaren - like in real life but not in the non-Red Bull - gets the better of Aston Martin. Alpine retains its slot in no-man’s land, and Williams, AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas are unchanged.

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