The US presidential election – dubbed the “most important election” of our lifetimes – will have enormous consequences for Australia and the world.
If Donald Trump is re-elected, we’ll be facing another four years of unpredictable policymaking and strained foreign relations.
What does our future look like with Mr Trump in charge?
US-Australia relations
A Trump victory would likely mean little to the American alliance.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is seen by some as one of few world leaders who enjoys a decent working relationship with Mr Trump, so much so that he was invited to Washington DC for a state dinner in his honour.
Mr Trump called him “the man of titanium” on the visit, and Australia has largely escaped the fury of the President’s jihad against trade allies.
David Smith, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney’s United States Study Centre, said he “wouldn’t expect that to change” if Mr Trump continued as POTUS, saying Australia enjoyed one of his best international relationships.
“Australia has a trade deficit with the US. The countries that got Trump’s attention and his ire have been ones that ran trade surpluses, and that’s a reason Australia is in a good position with Trump,” Dr Smith told The New Daily.
“Part of the relationship too is, there’s not much to attract Trump’s attention in the first place. We’re not like South Korea with a lot of American military there defending against North Korea, or like the EU or NATO where Trump was upset about countries not contributing enough. There’s not a lot of sources of antagonism in the relationship.”
But Charles Miller, from ANU, thought differently, saying there was a possibility that Australia could “no longer rely on the US as a great and powerful friend”.
“I think Trump knows or cares very little about America’s alliances, including with Australia. All it would take is for Australia to cross him and we’d straight away be in the dog house with other countries,” Dr Miller said.
Trade
Australia has enjoyed a good trade relationship with the US, largely – Dr Smith asserts – due to our trade deficit.
But there are thoughts that, with a Trump win and Australia continuing to hitch its wagon to the US, that our ongoing tension with China may continue.
The Chinese government has accused Australia of being America’s “lapdog” when it comes to criticism of the rising superpower, such as Australia calling for global action on Chinese human rights issues, and an international COVID inquiry.
Mr Trump’s antagonism toward China feeds through to Australia, or at least China’s perception of Australia, meaning an ongoing Trump relationship may further fracture Australia’s trade ties with our most important buyer.
International agreements
Mr Trump has continually attacked global institutions like the United Nations, the World Health Organisation, the Paris climate agreement and more, either slashing American contributions or pulling the US out of the compacts entirely.
Dr Smith said he saw that continuing – and even accelerating – under a second Trump win.
“It would make international multilateralism much harder. He’d feel politically unconstrained,” Mr Smith said.
What that would mean for Australia, it’s hard to say.
But continued erosion of important global agreements and co-operation, from Australia’s most important ally, would hardly be helpful for these groups.
It could lead to further damage to the work of such organisations, with the world’s biggest superpower not participating, and potentially encourage other countries to follow suit.
“His policymaking is so erratic, his support for traditional alliances is so weak, his affinity for autocrats is so strong, that the global order established in 1945 that has served Australia very well is at risk,” Dr Miller said.
Climate
Most of Australia’s big trading partners have signed up to a net-zero emissions by 2050 climate pledge, and China by 2060.
The US has not, and would not, under a Trump presidency.
This would ease the pressure on the Australian government to commit to a similar emissions target, with our big ally also not on board.
Dr Smith thinks Mr Trump’s dismissal of such international climate agreements and targets, especially in the context of his trade crusade and plans for a manufacturing jobs recovery, would see Mr Trump further erode American environmental controls and rules.
Coronavirus
The coronavirus has wreaked havoc on the US, killing more than 238,000 Americans and infecting more than 9.6 million people.
In Trump’s America, where face masks are treated as optional, health advice is undermined and distrust in public institutions is encouraged, that trajectory is set to continue.
So what does that mean for us?
Mr Trump will keep pushing to fast-track a coronavirus vaccine and will pressure medical companies to secure exclusive use of one for Americans only.
If he succeeds, Australia can forget about a special ‘mates rates’ vaccine deal.
“Fortunately, there are multiple efforts to develop a vaccine all over the world,” Dr Miller said.
In the short term, America’s economy may recover quickly under Mr Trump as he pushes to reopen the country despite soaring coronavirus case numbers.
That’s according to Professor Wesley Widmaier, an American politics expert at ANU.
“If Donald Trump is re-elected, speaking very bluntly, he’s decided, as the military would say, there is a level of acceptable losses in the context of the coronavirus,” he told The New Daily.
“It means the economy will recover sooner, but we’ll be trading lives for GDP here.”
Travel
Australians – especially Victorians – have worked hard to get our coronavirus cases down to virtually zero.
As long as the virus continues to rip through the US, our international border with America will remain tightly sealed.
“Whatever one thinks, I don’t think Scott Morrison views any levels of losses in Australia as acceptable,” Professor Widmaier said.
“With Australia, America will grow faster if Trump wins and continues on the path he’s been on, but certainly travel and things like that won’t resume.”
