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Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Ian Mitchelmore

What happens if Wales lose to Italy and are tied with Switzerland on points, goals and goal difference

Wales round off their Euro 2020 group stage schedule against Italy today.

Rob Page's side all-but booked their place in the last-16 of the tournament by beating Turkey 2-0 in Baku four days after kick-starting the tournament with a 1-1 draw against Switzerland.

It means they are guaranteed to finish in the top three of Group A.

The top two sides in all six groups automatically progress into the knockout stages. The remaining four last-16 places will go to the four-best third-placed sides. You can read how that is worked out here.

READ MORE: Ramsey has nothing to prove - Page

In Group A, Italy currently lead the way having claimed six points from their opening two games while Wales are second with four points. Then come Switzerland who have one point while Turkey are rock bottom having lost both of their games so far.

Wales will win the group if they beat Italy in Rome, and that would see them play against the runner-up of Group C (Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria & North Macedonia) in the last 16 at Wembley on Saturday, June 26.

A draw will guarantee them second place and a last-16 fixture against the runner-up of Group B (Belgium, Russia, Finland & Denmark) at Amsterdam's Johan Cruyff Arena on Saturday, June 26.

Wales could still take runner-up spot if they lost to Roberto Mancini's side, as long as the Swiss don't beat Turkey and overturn a five-goal swing in the process.

There is a scenario that could see Wales and Switzerland end the group stage with identical records though.

If Wales lose 3-0 to Italy and Switzerland beat Turkey 2-0 (for context, Sky Bet* are offering odds of 79/1 for this combination of results to occur) then their records would be identical.

Both teams would have four points, a goal difference of -1, a total of three goals scored and the same number of wins (one each).

It means they could not be separated by UEFA's lengthy list of standard tiebreakers due to the fact that they drew 1-1 when they met in Baku on June 12.

Should this scenario pan out, the teams would be separated on their disciplinary records in the tournament.

The disciplinary points system is based on the following: red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points.

Ben Davies and Chris Mepham were both booked against Turkey while Kieffer Moore was yellow carded against Switzerland.

As for the Swiss, Breel Embolo and Mario Gavranovic were cautioned against Italy while Fabian Schar and Kevin Mbabu were booked against Wales.

How far will Wales go in the tournament? Let us know in the comments section below

It means, after the first two group games, Wales have three disciplinary points compared to Switzerland's four, which means Rob Page's men would take second as things stand, although this could change on Sunday.

Should the two nations end the group stages with the same number of disciplinary points, they would be separated on their European qualifiers ranking (Switzerland were ninth and Wales were 19th, so the Swiss would clinch this one to finally settle things).

Remaining Group A fixtures

Switzerland v Turkey (Sunday, June 20) - 5pm kick-off

Italy v Wales (Sunday, June 20) - 5pm kick-off

* odds correct at time of publishing.

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