Each week we like to check in on how the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) changes the percentage chances of the Ohio State football team winning the each remaining regular season game of the 2023 season, and it’s that time of the week again.
So far, believe it or not, ESPN’s crazy model that predicts future performance of a team based on current metrics in combination with its opponents, has been very kind to the Buckeyes. It has predicted them to win each game on the schedule. We don’t ask how the sausage was made, we just consume it: It’s been pretty savory so far.
And in case you haven’t been paying attention, Ohio State has a massive matchup this weekend with Penn State. Both are undefeated. Both are in the top 10, and the winner will have a significant leg up in the race for the Big Ten title and perhaps a berth in the College Football Playoff. The loser isn’t out of it, but it will have to grab the pom-poms and start researching conspiracy theories the rest of the way.
Here is what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says about each remaining game on the schedule and OSU’s chances of winning, including games against those Nittany Lions, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan State and, of course, Michigan. We also take a look at how things might have changed since last week when we went through the same exercise.
Oct. 21 vs. Penn State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 63.5% (down from 65.6% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 23-14
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 28 at Wisconsin
Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.3% (up from 83.2% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4 at Rutgers
SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 92.2% (up from 91.0% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (up from 96.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.2% (up from 96.9% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 53.2% (down from 54.4% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 12-0
NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends
Trending Summary
How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| vs. Penn State | 63.5% | 65.6% | ⇓ |
| at Wisconsin | 88.3% | 83.2% | ⇑ |
| at Rutgers | 92.2% | 91.0% | ⇑ |
| vs. Michigan State | 96.9% | 96.7% | ⇑ |
| vs. Minnesota | 97.2% | 96.9% | ⇑ |
| at Michigan | 53.2% | 54.4% | ⇓ |
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