Nick Chubb is no longer a member of the Cleveland Browns, with the news that he will be joining the Texans’ backfield. Houston tried their hand at plucking an AFC North Pro Bowler last year as Joe Mixon had an excellent first campaign after joining from the Bengals, and now the ex-Brown will hope to have a similarly positive impact as Houston looks to build a Super Bowl-caliber supporting cast around C.J. Stroud.
Nick Chubb’s Fantasy History
Chubb arrived on the NFL scene as a must-start running back option and maintained his grip on elite status for five strong seasons. Through his first six seasons he never averaged fewer than 11.6 fantasy points per game, however a 7.9 ppg performance in eight games not only represented a stark dip in per-game production, but also a continuation of potentially his largest red flag: he played just eight games after breaking his foot in week 14 and missing the first six weeks due to a horrific injury the season before.
In just the second game of the 2023 season, Chubb suffered a gruesome injury when a defender rolled into his planted leg, horrifically folding it in the wrong direction. The tackle completely shredded Chubb’s knee ligaments, kept him out for more than a year, and preceded his least productive per-game season on his return. Elite running backs often fall off a cliff productively, and an injury so severe at an advanced age for such a short-lived position means Chubb’s days as a viable starter may be past.
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy History
Like Chubb, Mixon debuted as a clear starter, posting double-digit ppg as a rookie, and has only gotten better since. He has not dropped below 14.1 ppg since, and has been over 15 ppg for the last five seasons, four of them rounding out his time in Cincinnati and one last season in his new home in Houston. Last year was Mixon’s second-best in his career in fantasy terms, and saw him post his joint-second-best season for touchdowns.
The good news for owners of Mixon is that there is little reason to think he’s still not capable of being a productive running back when he gets his hands on the ball. The concern instead will only come from the potential risk to workload that a player of Chubb’s caliber may represent, particularly if it turns out the former Browns man takes a healthy chunk out of Mixon’s goal line usage.
Important Questions
While it’s currently too early to speak definitively about how the two-man backfield will shake out and what it will mean for each man’s viability as a fantasy player, as the Texans begin to bed Chubb in, there are some important questions to keep in mind. The answer to these key areas of interest will be critical in assessing how highly each should sit on your draft board.
- Who is topping the depth chart?: The most obvious consideration is who is getting the title of lead back. The top back gets the most touches and the most opportunities to rack up points for your team. Even if things are relatively balanced, it will be best to have the #1 guy. All early expectations are for this to be Mixon.
- How balanced is the game plan?: Even in balanced backfields, there commonly remains some level of inequality in touches. While a 60/40 split may be less preferable for your lead back than 85/15, it still means the 60 player is getting three touches for every two the other back does, which can add up quickly.
- Who Is Getting The High Value Touches?: Touches may be the key to raising a running back’s floor, as more carries mean more yards and more point accumulation. If you want a high ceiling, you need a back who finds the end zone. While breakaway touchdowns are points bonanzas, it’s around the goal line where elite fantasy backs make their money. In his later years, Jerome Bettis posted the famous statline 5 carries, 1 yard, 3 TDs, for a comfortable 18.1 fantasy points on one yard.
- What Are Your PPR Rules?: Catches out of the backfield have become increasingly important in the modern NFL, and that makes PPR a big consideration when drafting your backfield. Chubb is a fairly traditional back, having averaged more than two receptions per game just once in his career, in just his second season, and accumulating just 15 receptions in 10 games over the last two seasons. Mixon, conversely, has averaged roughly 50 targets for 40 receptions, 360 yards, and 2 TDS per season, so his production on passing downs is likely to remain high.
- Is Nick Chubb still Nick Chubb?: The biggest question mark is how good Chubb can be when healthy. Knee injuries are particularly devastating for backs, and after topping 5.0 YPC every year of his career, he put up just 3.3 YPC on a not-insignificant 102 carry sample size. 2024 was a dire season for Cleveland, even by “Brownie” standards, so there may be room for a bounce back, but it’s a concerning indicator.
Final Verdict On Chubb And Mixon’s Fantasy Prospects In 2025
It’s early days with Chubb having just signed his contract with the Texans, but the first indications are that Mixon will remain the lead back. If you’re a dynasty owner, there’s reason to be a little concerned that Chubb will show he’s still got it and begin eating into Mixon’s production, particularly on non-passing downs and goal line situations, but you will likely be okay.
If you’re drafting fresh, as long as your league doesn’t hold your draft wildly early, you can use training camp and preseason to gauge how things seem to be going for Chubb. If signs are positive for the former Brown, you should move him up your draft board as a potential stash with high-end potential, while Mixon should slide down some slots to account for likely lost touches.
