There are 120 days left in the 2016 Major League Baseball regular season, yet the season is over for all but 13 teams.
The Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, Cardinals, Dodgers and White Sox, congratulations all. You’re still World Series contenders. The rest of the teams in baseball? Sorry, it’s over. You can keep playing. In fact, you’re contractually required to. But all you’ll get out of the remainder of the season is light exercise and a dugout seat at some post-game fireworks shows.
This is not a wild prediction or a hot take. It’s modern history. Of the 21 World Series champions since baseball’s wildcard system was introduced in 1995, 20 finished the month of May three games above .500 or better. In fact, excluding the 2010 and 2012 champion San Francisco Giants, the low mark on 31 May was seven games over. The exception to the rule came 13 years ago when the then Florida Marlins headed into June at 26-31, 12 games out of first place in their division. A Marlins sequel is unlikely to occur, however, unless Miguel Cabrera – a 20 year-old rookie utility man on that team – can teach his losing Tigers team to capture the magic, or some also-ran decides to hire 85 year-old Jack McKeon out of retirement.
In a sport fueled by statistics, the relevant sample size for an entire team is two months. If a baseball team hasn’t proven itself to be a winner by the end of May, it’s unlikely to suddenly figure it all out during the final four months of the season, no matter what trades or firings they make. But sub-.500 teams don’t need to slog through June, July, August and September in a haze of irrelevancy and depression. The 31 May cut-off line of championship viability can, and should, influence the decisions of teams that find themselves on the wrong side of the standings.
GMs can begin building a trade market for their disposable veteran pieces in order to get the best deal by 31 July. Thanks to the Super 2 deadline that fittingly falls around the same time and delays arbitration eligibility, they can also call up top prospects to give them a look for the future. A smart GM will get a headstart now on getting better instead of hoping the subpar team he built will suddenly become what he hoped it would be. (Hi, Brian Cashman!)
MLB is not going to be open about this reality or feature it in any marketing campaigns, of course. “Major League Baseball: Most Of Our Teams Are Hopeless” isn’t a slogan that will drive ticket sales or TV ratings over the long summer months. But doesn’t it feel better for most of you to know now, with the whole summer still laid out before us, that your favorite team is completely hopeless?
Oh. I see. Always blaming the messenger.
Video of the week
There is little better in baseball than being treated to a position player taking the mound, but it’s even more entertaining when the position player drops an eephus pitch over the plate for a strike, as San Diego’s do-everything utilityman Christian Bethancourt did on Tuesday in a blowout loss to the Mariners.
While the eephus clocked in at just 53 mph, Bethancourt also hit 96 mph with his fastball on the way to making it through two-thirds of an inning without giving up a run. All just another example of why dominant pitching – or dominantly bizarre pitching, in this case – is the greatest spectacle in the sport.
Quote of the week
I asked him what he did when he had to get back on track over in Korea. He said he never got off track - Twins manager Paul Molitor, on talking to 29 year-old rookie Byung Ho Park about the DH’s first MLB slump.
After hitting six home runs and putting up an .848 OPS in April, Park dropped to three and .679 in May. There may be holes in his swing, but there are no holes in his story: he left the KBO after back-to-back seasons with more than 50 home runs and an OPS over 1.100. It’s impossible to bat-flip with such verve if you’ve ever been humbled by a slump.
Who’s closer to victory: Donald Trump or the Cubs?
The best chance for Never Trumpers to defeat the decomposing cantaloupe and supposed billionaire is to draw attention to his unforced errors and turn enough people against him that he’s unelectable. Things like Trump giving promised donations to veterans organizations only when pushed to do so. Or that his failed Trump University urged students to run up credit card debt. Basically, the political version of this Miguel Montero throw to no one.
Maddon's reaction to Montero's brain fart is perfect (r @BMcCarthy32) pic.twitter.com/UcgYFVxnp2
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero) June 1, 2016
How did the kids piss off Goose Gossage this week?
Back in March, Goose Gossage made his opinion clear on Toronto slugger Jose Bautista: “Bautista is a fucking disgrace to the game. He’s embarrassing to all the Latin players, whoever played before him. Throwing his bat and acting like a fool.”
Those comments came before Bautista’s fight with Rougned Odor two weeks ago, a fight Bautista is still talking about. “Was Odor out to play baseball that day?” Bautista asked in an interview with Sports Illustrated this week. “Maybe partly. Part of me also thinks that he was looking for a fight. I could have hit him. I could have hurt him. I chose not to. My cleats were down. I slid through the bag. Was it late? Yes, a hundred percent. But what can I do after they hit me?”
Someone find Mr Gossage. Only he can answer this important baseball code question. Just don’t go to his house looking for him. He’s not the kind of man who will stand for someone stepping on his lawn.
Nine things in order
1) Why doesn’t one of baseball’s several thousand unwritten rules ban pitching around a great hitter? Isn’t that what much of the code is all about: being tough and macho and not backing down? If it’s wrong to try to break up a no-hitter with a bunt because it’s not giving the pitcher the respect of a full swing (or whatever the tortured logic is in that instance), why is it okay to not give Bryce Harper anything to hit for the bulk of a month? Between May 5th and the 22nd, Harper was walked 31 times in 16 games. What kind of cowardly code is that approach found? May every pitcher who walked Harper last month lose a perfect game in the ninth inning on a bunt single.
2) On 15 February 2013, Marlon Byrd said the following words: “I think you have to be an idiot to test positive and I was one of those idiots.” On Wednesday, Byrd was suspended 162 games for testing positive a second time. But don’t call him an idiot. Byrd has made nearly $50m in his career, the bulk of that coming after the age of 30 when he suddenly became productive and developed some power in his swing. An idiot couldn’t take advantage of the system that well.
3) San Diego ended a 1-7 road trip on Tuesday, prompting team chairman Ron Fowler to call the team “miserable failures,” “embarrassing,” and “pathetic” in a radio interview. Harsh stuff. Prominent Rons of San Diego definitely have a habit of saying regrettable things into a microphone.
4) Cubs destroyer of worlds Jake Arrieta is looking to cash in as a free agent after the 2017 season, but Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw cautioned against that approach to reporters when the teams met this week: “Every situation is different, [but] for me there wasn’t anywhere else I wanted to go. I was comfortable. I was home [in Los Angeles]. Not to mention all the other factors. It’s a great city, it’s a great place to play, it’s a great team and it’s a great place to pitch. When you combine all those factors, it was an easy decision.” Yes, it seems Kershaw thinks his seven-year, $215m contract, the one that makes him the highest-paid player in baseball, was signed at a hometown discount. We’ll see if Arrieta can find it in his heart to pitch for the Cubs for just $30.7m a year.
5) Behold White Sox reliever Matt Albers ripping his first hit since 2007, an opposite field double against the Mets.
Matt Albers? More like BAT Albers....https://t.co/2nzTei0v9H
— Sports on Earth (@SportsonEarth) June 1, 2016
Upon arriving at second, he said he told Mets second baseman Neil Walker: “Sorry, man. I don’t know how to slide.” Albers later scored the game-winning run. Well, run seems generous.
6) Neymar took some hacks in the Mets batting cage this week and it didn’t go too well.
So we finally have a definitive answer to the classic sports debate question: “Is Neymar or Matt Albers a better athlete?” Clearly, it’s Albers.
7) One start after refusing to speak to reporters, and getting trashed for it by the New York press, Matt Harvey had his best appearance of the season on Memorial Day, pitching seven scoreless innings against the White Sox. That came on the heels of the Pittsburgh Penguins reaching the Stanley Cup final even though Sidney Crosby avoided the media after losing Game 5 of the Eastern Conference final, and was subsequently bashed by some in the local media. Perhaps sports reporters aren’t as important as they think they are and that athletes sometimes are better off focusing on their job instead of answering questions. (Except questions from Guardian reporters, of course. Athletes should always answer those.)
8) The first voting update for the All-Star Game was released this week and seven Royals and eight Cubs are all within striking distance of starting spots. That seems absurd, but maybe it’s best to just make the All-Star Game a Royals-Cubs game. If an exhibition game is going to determine World Series homefield, we can at least let two teams who have a realistic shot of playing in the Series decide it.
9) Let’s close with a baseball-related NBA Finals prediction: Golden State will win no matter how well Cleveland plays because Cleveland sports are cursed. Even inanimate objects conspire to hinder their success.
