The Baltimore Ravens announced they have officially used the franchise tag to retain outside linebacker Matthew Judon for the 2020 NFL season. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be playing for Baltimore come Week 1.
All offseason, I’ve speculated that tagging and trading Judon might be in the Ravens’ best interests. If Baltimore feels they won’t be able to get a deal done at a value they like, trading Judon for draft capital would make a ton of sense as they look to rebuild their depth chart at the position. But just what would the going rate for Judon actually be?
Of course, everything depends on the final market for pass rushers and the level of interest the rest of the league would show. A single team inquiring about Judon likely wouldn’t return a ton of value whereas if a handful of teams are interested in pulling off a trade, the Ravens could drive up the asking price. The fewer premier pass rushers available will likely dictate all of this and with several expected to get the franchise tag this offseason as well, it could lead to Judon being the big prize of free agency.
To figure out the floor and ceiling for Judon, we have to look to previous trades for pass rushers. Luckily for us, last season saw a bevy of deals pulled off, so we have a pretty good indication of what to expect here.
2019 pass rusher trades:
- New England Patriots Michael Bennett to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2021 seventh-round pick (midseason before trade deadline)
- Miami Dolphins Robert Quinn to the Cowboys for a 2020 sixth-round pick
- Cleveland Browns Emmanuel Ogbah to the Kansas City Chiefs for safety Eric Murray
- Philadelphia Eagles Michael Bennett and a 2020 seventh-round pick to Patriots for a 2020 fifth-round pick
- Chiefs Dee Ford to San Francisco 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick
- Seattle Seahawks Frank Clark and a 2019 third-round pick to Kansas City for a 2019 first- and a third-round pick, as well as a 2020 second-round pick
- Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney to Seahawks for Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a 2020 third-round pick
Of that group, Ford, Clark and Clowney are the ones that most clearly mirror the Ravens’ and Judon’s situation now. All three had been franchise tagged because a long-term deal couldn’t be figured out. For Clark and Ford, they ended up being traded to teams that were willing to pony up the cash to lock them up.
For the Chiefs, they jettisoned Ford, who ended up getting a five-year contract worth $85 million ($17 million a year average) from the 49ers, according to Over The Cap. Kansas City ended up trading for Clark, giving him a five-year deal worth $104 million ($20.8 million a year average), according to OTC. Clowney ended up being a one-year rental that will likely be worth a third-round compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere this offseason as a free agent.
Let’s better break down what the floor, ceiling and realistic trade values are for Judon given that history and what the Ravens should do in those situations.
Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic
Floor: 3rd-round pick
Going by that history, the floor on any Judon trade would be a third-round pick.
If that’s the best Baltimore ends up getting offered, it would make far more sense for the Ravens to simply hold on to him for the year and look to recoup a third-round pick via the compensatory formula in 2022 if he leaves next offseason. The Ravens have enough salary-cap space right now to eat Judon’s projected $16.27 million hit for the 2020 season, so they probably wouldn’t feel much pressure to make a trade happen solely for that reason.
Baltimore is right in the early stages of their Super Bowl window and Judon is a big part of that. Keeping him would maximize their potential this season and wouldn’t ultimately mean much of a bump up in draft capital in a scenario where he walks as a free agent next offseason.
Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic
Ceiling: 1st- and 2nd-round picks
This seems like the dream scenario and one that the Ravens would be wise to jump on if offered. It would give Baltimore two first-round picks and two second-round picks in a draft that has a lot of great early talent at pass rusher and wide receiver. While the Ravens might not be able to get a player that would immediately provide the production Judon gave in 2019, they’d have a good chance of finding a prospect that would be a solid starter as a rookie with a ton of upside over the next few years all on a cheap deal.
More importantly, it would free up that $16.27 million in cap space and allow Baltimore to be more aggressive in free agency. The Ravens could potentially make a play on Clowney and set up the contract to have a similar or lower cap hit in 2020 while still having enough cap space to sign a second-tier free agent as well. When added to the potential of the draft, this could be the answer to Baltimore’s problems at outside linebacker both for the short and long term.
Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic
Realistic: 2nd-round pick
A second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft seems like the fairest and most realistic deal for Baltimore here. It’s just enough to get the Ravens to actually be interested without giving up the farm for a player who still needs an expensive long-term contract.
If everything goes perfectly, it’s the type of deal that leaves everyone happy. Judon would get the bags of cash he’s earned, another team would get a stout run defender who can get after the quarterback and the Ravens would get some more early-round draft capital while freeing up some cap space to make moves in free agency to shore up the position better.
But it has downsides as well, and they have to be weighed carefully. There are absolutely no guarantees in the NFL and especially the draft. The Ravens could end up with no big-name free agent signings and a bust in the draft pretty easily while watching Judon become one of the best pass rushers in the league.
I think this type of deal would be enticing for general manager Eric DeCosta but might not be one they jump at unless there’s a belief they won’t be able to re-sign Judon.
Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic
